The Power of Hype

Apologies for the long wait in between posts, I’ve been moving house.

Returning to the same bugbear I had come the announcements of the 2009 Gold Glove winners I thought I’d take the time to rant about the impact of hype and expectation on another, dare I say, more prestigious award bestowed by Major League Baseball; namely the Rookie of the Year awards.

Although there are still some 30 or so games remaining in the season the National League in particular seems to have pretty much decided its winners in this category. In doing so more deserving candidates are likely to be left out in the cold come November.

In terms of the Rookie of the Year award it should be pretty clear that Jason Heyward is going to win this award. In truth Heyward probably won the award by the end of the very first game of the season. Heyward’s fantastic spring training, his hometown hero status as an athlete who inspired African-Americans in Georgia to pursue baseball and simple being just 20 years old already had him marked for big league awards. Hitting that colossal home run in his first major league at bat was just the icing on the cake. After the ‘Chris Who?’ reactions to last years winner Chris Coghlan baseball finally had a rookie with brand recognition. Really with this years rookie crop the MLB publicity and marketing machine couldn’t lose. If Heyward failed to live up to the hype (he has, just) then there was always Stephen Strasburg, the ‘greatest pitching prospect there ever was’ or maybe Mike Leake who missed the minors entirely. Given the buzz surrounding him in Spring Training there was always a chance that Aroldis Chapman, he of the 100mph fastball and the romantic story of defection from Cuba, would take home the trophy.

The only trouble is none of these great young hopes for baseball have panned out quite as planned. Yes, Heyward is having a very good year, at the time of writing he is on a tear and has a .275 BA and 70 RBIs and looks to be the centre piece of the Braves’ offence (along with Brian McCann) for the considerable future but he is not the clear cut best hitter in the 2010 rookie class. Strasburg was incredible but now the issue facing Strasburg is not whether or not he should win Heyward’s Rookie of the Year award given his June call-up but more an issue of whether is will be able to come back from injury and have a major league future at all. The same could be said about Leake. Chapman is definitely the biggest let-down of the four having yet to appear in a big league game.

Heyward however has a lot of less heralded competition, many of whom compare favourably with him as a player thus far this season. Tyler Colvin leads all Major League rookies with 19 HRs, Mike Stanton is proving to be everything they said he was down in Florida and Starlin Castro is having success in Chicago at the same tender age as Heyward. Not to mention Ike Davis in New York. None of these men however are having quite as good a year as Gaby Sanchez, the true NL rookie of the year.

At the time of writing Sanchez was besting Heyward in all of the triple crown statistics (* Heyward has now caught him in RBIs) and is hitting .282/.350.

I know there is of course an argument to be made that Heyward deserves the award because of the intense pressure he has been under in Atlanta to live up to all of the praise and expectation placed on him. Also he is playing a more demanding position than Sanchez. These are valid arguments and I do not for one second believe that, should Heyward win the award it will be a gross miscarriage of justice, however Sanchez deserves more credit than he is currently getting.

Heyward, because of the expectations heaped upon him and because of his value to the Braves as a marketing tool has been given all the opportunities possible in order to help him succeed, in short, he has developed into a star player partly because the Braves (particularly after Chipper’s injury) have placed him centre stage, have placed him in the RBI situations, have made him a star player. Sanchez has had none of that in Florida, he has succeeded despite the organisation’s pushing of the likes of Stanton and Coghlan ahead of him. Plus, Heyward has had the benefit of being coached by the likes of Bobby Cox, Terry Pendleton and (presumably) Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus and Brian McCann in order to develop his game. Who does Sanchez have to provide the same expertise? Hanley Ramirez dispensing advise? I very much doubt it.

All in all it seems pretty much a foregone conclusion that Heyward will win the Rookie of the Year and that’s fine, he deserves it. Let’s just not forget that there are a player equally as good and equally as deserving that got left in the shadow of Heyward-mania this year.

Give Frenchy a chance!

Yesterday the Mets traded Jeff Francoeur to the Rangers for Joaquin Arias, and it was a stupid thing to do.

It was stupid on several levels, not least on the level that the Mets absolutely do not need another middle infielder (least of all one as substandard as Arias) and surely the Rangers don’t need another outfielder (they already have Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy etc plus I can see no reason why Vlad couldn’t be trotted out at LF every once in a while).

More so, I cannot fathom why the Mets would be so eager to get rid of Francoeur so cheaply and so recklessly.

I like Frenchy but I’m not going to argue that the .237/.293/.369 is anything less than what it is, absolutely terrible. Indeed, Jeff’s offensive ability, especially when assessed in sabremetric terms has been a cause for concern for some time. However I refuse to believe that Jeff is done as a full-time big leaguer.

Let’s look at the positives. Jeff Francoeur is 26 years old. A huge proportion of great players haven’t so much as had a cup of coffee in the major by the time they reach 26 (Ryan Howard for example). Whilst a brief glance through Jeff’s stats does reveal a worrying trend of very poor batting average to on-base-percentage (the best differential he’s managed over a full season was .293/.338 in 2007) his stats for this season so far reveal a much healthier 60 point difference between the two percentages. Admittedly Frenchy’s only hitting .237 but slumps in batting average can be attributable to many things whereas low OBP is usually a constant characteristic. There has been speculation that Jeff has lost bat speed and his low average is caused by this. Frankly I don’t buy this theory. Players do not lose their bat speed at 26. Have we learned nothing from David Ortiz over the past few years, we were all quick to assume that Big Papi’s bat speed had vanished when rumours of its demise were greatly overstated. Francoeur hit above .300 last year after being traded to the Mets, there’s no reason to think he can’t do that again, and if his BA/OBP differential remains at 2010 levels then he’ll have an OBP of .360, well above league average.

I don’t necessarily think that Francoeur is ever going to be an above average hitter but I do think that many of the predictions being made about his offensive future this season are alarmist. He is simply having a bad year, playing in notoriously bad hitter’s park and is under the pressure of the New York media. There is no reason whatsoever that, at 26 Francoeur cannot enjoy a career resurgence in the American League and become the 25 HR 100 RBI man of his early seasons with the Braves.

This explains why the Rangers wanted Francoeur. Whilst one can never be certain how a career NL player will perform in the AL (see Willis, Dontrelle) there is every chance that Francoeur’s free-swinging ways will make him a hero in Texas and enable him to become what he was meant to be in Atlanta; a young (more-or-less) 5-tool player that you can build a franchise around. The prospect of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and a resurgent Jeff Francoeur manning the Texas outfield is pretty daunting isn’t it?

Yet I’m sure that Omar Minaya didn't have the best interests of Jeff Francoeur at heart when he made this trade happen. It seems that the Mets have dumped Jeff simply for whatever they could get in return. This is the part I don’t get. The Mets have (realistically) no chance of making the post-season and have huge injury issues in their outfield (Bay, a returning Beltran who is hitting below the Mendoza line). Why not keep Francoeur until the end of the year, why sell him so cheaply to a contending team?

By all accounts Francoeur has really developed into a leader on this rag-tag Mets team. This perhaps is an indication of where Jeff’s true value lies, if his hitting doesn’t improve then perhaps he can still make a valuable contribution as a leader in the Jason Varitek mould.

And let’s not forget his arm, still by far the best cannon in the game.

Don’t count Frenchy out, he still might surprise you.

All Star Game Selections

Apologies for having not posted in a while. I’ve been far too busy job-hunting and getting excited about the World Cup. I’ve been working on a post about the value of W-L statistics and hope to have that up by the end of the week.

Until then, as a member of the Baseball Bloggers Association I will be posting my All-Star ballot for the 2010 season. I’m following the format used by MLB.com for this, plus I’ll include a pitching staff of 5 starters, a reliever and a closer from each league.

American League:

Catcher:

Victor Martinez (Boston Red Sox)

Obviously Joe Mauer is going to be voted into the All-Star game and, in all likelihood is going to star for the AL but V-Mart really deserves such consideration. Currently Victor is second to Jason Kendal in at bats for an American League catcher and is putting up better offensive numbers than Mauer. Mauer is of course hitting for a higher average but one could well argue that given that the entire twins offence is set up around him and Morneau he is underperforming in terms of production. V-Mart has had a fantastic June thus far and, as far as I can recall, hasn’t done anything too horrendous defensively for a while.

1st Base:

Justin Morneau (Minnesota Twins)

While Miguel Cabrera seems to be storming his way towards triple crown consideration I’m giving the nod to Morneau who is hitting .344/.455/.624 whilst playing for a team which has more offensive threats to share the RBI totals with than the one-dimensional Tigers. Honourable mention has to go to Billy Butler (who Kansas City need to sell the cow to keep hold of for as long as possible if they ever hope to contend again) and Kevin Youkilis. Ideally Youk would receive my vote here but, for the sake of impartiality and integrity I’m going to go with Morneau who is currently my hot pick for AL MVP too.

2nd Base:

Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)

It’s very difficult to see how anyone other than Cano is going to get any serious consideration for starting AL second baseman this year. Of course Dustin Pedroia will get into the game but that is entirely due to the fanaticism of the Red Sox ‘Nation’ rather than anything he has done on the field thus far in 2010. Cano however has finally fulfilled the enormous potential the Yankees have proclaimed he has (yes, I know he had 200+ hits last year but was still lost in the Teixiera, Jeter, A-Rod shuffle and never stood out as integral to the team) and is a strong bet for MVP (although I have my doubts about whether anyone playing for a Yankees team that stacked can ever meet the true definition of a valuable player).

3rd Base:

Adrian Beltre (Boston RedSox)

If you had told me that I would be voting Adrian Beltre onto the AL all-star team as a member of the Boston Red Sox this time last year I would have had you committed. However, despite my scepticism about whether Beltre could ever live up to his 2004 season he has been quietly magnificent for the Sox this year, powering an offense that (especially early on) was crying out for someone to take a lead. Beltre is hitting .333 and has 9HR and 44RBI. A year ago I would have said that I didn’t expect much more than that from him for the whole year. A third of the way through the season 2004’s 40+HR and 120 RBIs doesn’t seem so ridiculous anymore. That said, I could do without some of his defensive ‘plays’ however.

Short Stop:

Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers)

Derek Jeter will be starting at SS for the American Leagues, that’s just a fact of life. However, this year (as with last year) one can make a very strong case for Jeter as the best SS in the AL. The same goes for Alex Gonzalez. Who would have thought he’d have hit 13 bombs thus far into the year (how many would he have hit at Fenway is a more depressing proposition). However, despite the strong cases for Jeter (who will get in anyway) and Gonzalez (who will probably taper off...he’d better) I’m going to have to give the vote to Elvis. Andrus leads AL short stops in batting average and stolen bases and is very much the catalyst that inspires the Rangers’ offense. Plus he’s a sophomore and deserves the chance to get his foot in the door as an all-star.

Outfielders:

Shin Soo Choo (Cleveland Indians)

Admittedly this selection is based more on Choo’s excellence last year than his play thus far in 2010, although he’s been by far the most exciting hitter to suit up for the tribe this year. Now that Grady Sizemore is on his annual trip to the DL (and if you ask me if all but done as a top flight CF – see Baldelli, Rocco) Choo has taken over the dubious honour of constituting the entire Cleveland offence and probably deserve an all-star nod as compensation.

Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)

It’s Ichiro, you can’t have an all-star game without Ichiro now can you? Ichiro should get into the all-star game on reputation alone but since he’s hitting for his usually ridiculous average he (once again) makes it in on met. Also, he hit an absolutely beautiful lead-off homer against St Louis the other day.

Austin Jackson (Detroit Tigers)

At the time of writing Jackson was still hitting over .300 and was leading AL rookies in most offensive categories. While I’m not particularly thrilled by the young CFs propensity to strike out at a Mark Reynolds clip one cannot fail to be impressed with his efforts thus far into his first big league season. As a Red Sox fan I can’t help but love watching Jackson succeed in Detroit whilst Curtis Granderson stinks up (then gets injured) in New York. Typical short-sighted Yankees trading at work. On a ‘well done Detroit for cultivating young stars’ notes if I wasn’t selecting Austin Jackson with this pick it would be Brandon Boesch getting the nod.

Designated Hitter:

Vlad Guerrero (Texas)

Apologies, completely forgot about the DH in my original voting. In a last ditch attempt to save the BBA All-Star voting system from being lopsided I'm voting for Vlad in the DH role. The reasons should be self-explanatory, he's having a massive year and could be an MVP (the comback award is already in the bag).

Starting Pitchers:

Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox)

I’ve been torn between Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz for my obligatory Red Sox pitching selection. I’m going to have to go with Jon as my pick as he’s finally taken over the ace mantle from the epically disappointing Josh Beckett. Honourable mention goes to Dice-K.

David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)

See Lester, Jon. Only better.

Mitch Talbot (Cleveland Indians)

There is rarely much to applaud in Cleveland once the Cavs are eliminated from the playoffs, and particularly since Hafner and Sizemore proved themselves fundamentally incapable of staying on a baseball field. Mitch Talbot, a Tampa Bay cast-off who was never given a proper chance by the Rays, is proving a genuine top of the rotation starter for the Indians and deserves an all-star nod. I’m not convinced he’ll still be an all-star come seasons end but still...

Phil Hughes (New York Yankees)

Even in my darkest Yankee-hating days I’ve always had a soft spot for Phil Hughes, and not just when seeing either him or Ian Kennedy at Fenway Park meant a guaranteed victory for the Sox. It’s nice to see him finally live up to all that potential.

Francisco Liriano (Minnesota Twins)

Liriano is another player I’ve always been impressed by and frustrated by in equal measure. A legitimate Cy Young calibre pitcher derailed by injury, Liriano looks to have finally shaken off the arm problems that have cost his years. If he can keep up this form he still has a chance to be as good as (if not better) CC Sabathia.

Relief Pitcher:

Sergio Santos (Chicago White Sox)

I’m always a big fan of these failed position players makes it as a pitcher (or vice versa) stories. I’d be happy enough letting Santos into the game just for that reason, but judging by the stats he’s been the most effective reliever in the American League to boot.

Closer:

Jose Valverde (Detroit Tigers)

There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut number one closer in the AL for me to pick this season. I was sorely tempted by Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz, but in the end I’m going to have to go for Jose pretty much solely on the basis on looking the part and having the intimidation factor that I like to see in my closers.

National League

Catcher:

Ivan Rodriguez (Washington Nationals)

I didn’t really want to have to vote for Pudge, largely due to the fact that I absolutely cannot stand the guy. One doesn’t want to say controversial things and cast aspersions on players’ integrity online (Raul Ibanez will come and get you if you do) but I’m increasingly coming to the opinion that; if Jose Canseco says someone did ‘roids, they probably did. Still Pudge is having a resurgent season after spending the best part of 3 years as a bit-part player. He is hitting like the Pudge of old and deserves recognition for the work he is undoubtedly doing acclimatising Stephen Strasburg to the majors.

1st base:

Troy Glaus (Atlanta Braves)

Glaus is another play who I thought was all but done as a legitimate everyday major league player. However, the switch over to 1st and a few months of health seem to have turned the clock back about 5 years on Glaus and (at time of writing) is pretty much there or there-abouts at the top of all NL statistical categories.

2nd base:

Kelly Johnson (Arizona Diamondbacks)

This was always going be between Kelly Johnson (who admittedly has calmed down from his dizzying peak when he had the South West [well, Mark Grace at least] convinced that he was a re-incarnation of Babe Ruth) and his replacement (or ouster) in Atlanta; Martin Prado. I’m going to give the nod to Johnson just because he was the one who had to re-start his career elsewhere and is doing so admirably.

3rd base:

Scott Rolen (Cincinnati Reds)

Who doesn’t like Scott Rolen? The hard-working, gritty, tough, 3rd baseman with a little bit of pop in his bat? Precisely. Role is the sort of guy everyone wants to have in the all-star games because he play it the way its meant to be played. Plus, this season, after years of injuries, he’s actually playing like a bona fide all-star too. Special mention to Jorge Cantu too.

Short Stop:

Juan Uribe (San Francisco Giants)

How did this happen? Juan Uribe, ex-White Sox cast off second baseman who I expected to spend much of this year sitting on the Giants’ bench, occasionally spot starting has 10HR and 41 RBIs in mid June! Normally this NL SS pick would have gone to Hanley Ramirez just because of my general love of the guy, not to mention that he’d be a perennial MVP if he played for a proper baseball team. However Hanley’s reputation has taken a bit of a bruising thus far in 2010 and while there is still a strong all-star case to be made for Ramirez (who is statistically the best SS in the NL) I think that based on performance, exceeded expectations and crucially, given the criticism Hanley has received, hard work and determination, Juan Uribe has to be the NL short stop.

Outfielders:

Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves)

The anointed one can’t miss the all-star game now can he? Heyward is slumping lately but one could hardly blame his given that he is being asked to carry the future of Atlanta baseball on his 20 year old shoulders. Still his numbers are all star calibre even with the slump and it does the game of baseball good to celebrate exciting young stars like Heyward and Jackson at the midsummer classic. I imagine that the BBWA will be straining themselves trying to find anyway possible to vote Heyward the NL APA (Albert Pujols Award) come September, he might not make it too hard for them.

Colby Rasmus (St Louis Cardinals)

Colby Rasmus is going to win an MVP award in the next 5 years. I’ve watched a lot of Cardinals games thus far this year and Rasmus really stands out as the ‘straw that stirs the drink’ on that team. Obviously the Cards are Albert’s team first and foremost but even Pujols needs a number 2 and given that Matt Holliday really doesn’t seem to be as advertised outside of Coors Fields, 2010 could well be Colby’s chance to shine.

Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates)

I ummed and ahhed about this one and thought long and hard about whether I wanted to use the last remaining outfield slot to vote in Chris Young (who is having a lovely season and finally living up to his potential in Arizona), or for Josh Willingham (a perennial second level talent who is putting up big numbers for the Nats). However I think that the young Pittsburgh CF has the edge on the competition and deserves a spot on the all-star roster for being so cruelly overlooked for last years rookie of the year competition.

Starting Pitching:

Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado Rockies)

I don’t see much point in going into too much detail here, Ubaldo is 13-1 with a microscopic ERA. He will win the Cy Young award, no matter how many perfectos Roy Halladay throws.

Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies)

Like with the likely runner up in the NL Cy Young race. Doc has been every bit as good as advertised since making the leap from the AL to the NL. The only surprise with Roy’s 2010 thus far has been the 8-6 Win Loss record, but, given that he has a sub 3.00 ERA, this less than stellar record is entirely the fault of the misfiring Phillies offence (plus that night that Boston hammered the hell out of Doc).

Jon Garland (San Diego Padres)

I’ve always been a big fan of Jon Garland and pitchers like him. Never flashy, never a dominant ace, Garland just goes out there every 5th day and makes his team better and gives them a chance to win. The success of the Padres (and particularly the success of the woeful on paper Padres rotation) is largely due to Garland’s stable, veteran presence. He could be the most ‘valuable’ pitcher on this list.

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

Halladay’s arch nemesis has been every bit as good as his rival thus far this season, including two memorable face-offs one of which was Halladay’s perfect game. The Marlins really did the right things in securing Johnson’s services going forward. Given Hanley Ramirez’ problems Johnson is looking more and more like the face of the franchise.

Mike Pelfrey (New York Mets)

How did this happen? A Mets pitcher in the all-star game and it’s not Johan? Still, while it’s not something that many would have predicted back in February, Pelfrey has probably been the most effective starter in the NL East thus far and thoroughly deserves his all-star place.

Relief Pitcher

Jason Motte (St Louis Cardinals)

Motte is pretty much the only guy I’m voting for here that has no chance of making it to Anaheim in July. But he should. The hard-throwing righty has been beyond solid for the Cards this year, appearing in a ton of games and maintaining a mid 2 ERA throughout. I can’t help but think that the Cardinals were a bit too hasty giving up on this guy as a closer. Certainly, if they aren’t able to keep Motte long term he could definitely become a big name closer elsewhere.

Closer

Billy Wagner (Atlanta Braves)

Admittedly this is very much a ‘so-long and goodbye’ pick, letting a hall of the very good closer go out with a nice thank you. Wagner deserves it too, 90% of the baseball world thought he was done after losing much of 2009 to injury (and having the Mets inexplicably sign two all-star closers didn’t help) but Billy deserves major credit for contributing to the Red Sox’ playoff run in 2009 and re-establishing himself as a premier closer with the resurgent Braves in 2010.

All's Wells That Ends Wells?

I really don’t know where I stand on Vernon Wells. On the one hand Wells has always stood out to me as the most glaring example of ridiculous contracts in baseball, as an exemplar of a team grossly over-estimating a player’s monetary value and setting back their own plans for success as a result. However, thus far in 2010 Wells is making me doing some re-thinking as, and no-one is as surprised about this than me, Vernon is actually playing like a player who makes close to $20,000,000 a year.

If Wells is able to sustain is his blistering early season form: 9 HR, 25 RBI, .328/.395/.641 with a 1.036 OPS then his name may very well be floating around in discussions for American League MVP come October. I also seems a pretty safe bet that he will make the AL All-Star team (although, given that he plays for Toronto I wouldn’t actually make that bet).

My concern with all this lies in the expectations we have of an MVP, of an All-Star. Are these players simply the best player that year in their league (if so just rename the NL MVP award the Albert Pujols award and be done with it) or do we actually take the phrase ‘most valuable player’ literally? I’m tempted to believe that in the AL at least we do. There is no other way of explaining Pedroia’s 2008 victory otherwise.

Assuming (and this is the sort of huge assumption that is liable to get oneself committed) that Well’s continue his form and carries these numbers into October, and that, by doing so he propels the Blue Jays into Wild-Card contention he could well be touted as a MVP, and under normal circumstances, rightly so.

Vernon Wells can have as good a 2010 season as he wants, he will still not be valuable to the Blue Jays. He owes them several years of early 2000’s Barry Bonds seasons offensively combined with Andruw Jones in his prime defence to even come close to being valuable to the franchise that has (idiotically, and Wells is not reasonable for that idiocy) made Vernon Wells a very rich man for, barring a Lenny Dykstra style financial collapse, the rest of his life.

Many people have called players like Wells and Barry Zito thieves, accusing them of some sort of wrongdoing in getting misguided franchises to pay way over the odds for their services. This is not the case, Wells’ lacklustre performance since 2006 is likely not the product of laziness or coasting (an accusation that case often be levelled at Manny Ramirez) and he is under no moral obligation to (as some commentators have suggest Zito should) return any of the millions he has undeservedly made during the three year period where he was putting up numbers like these:

2007: 16 HR 80 RBI - .245/.304/.402 .706 OPS
2008: 20 HR 78 RBI - .300/.343/.496 .840 OPS
2009: 15 HR 66 RBI - .260/.311/.400 .711 OPS

While 2008 wasn’t a total bust for Wells there is no doubting that a player putting up these numbers is of little ‘value’ to a team and that that value is significantly diminished when that player is making $18,000,000 a season. The argument I made that David Ortiz was still valuable last season when, despite a far lower batting average he produced similar HR and RBI totals to A-Rod made sense as Ortiz made nearly $15,000,000 less a year than Rodriguez. That argument cannot be made with Wells.

Wells has been so burdensome to the Blue Jays that they spent a great deal of last season offering Roy Halladay for a bag of magic beans just as long as someone was prepared to take Well’s ridiculous contract off their hands. No-one wanted him, which was a surprise really as, given subsequent form I would have thought Theo would have jumped at the prospect of overpaying for an oft-injured, offensively ineffective outfielder.

That a team is prepared to let their greatest ever play leave for less than they might normally demand just in order to get rid of the contract of their greatest ever financial albatross does not speak wonders for that player.

In short; Vernon, the last three years aren’t necessarily your fault but you will have to do a hell of a lot better than 40 HR 100 RBI and a .300/.400/.500 to ever be thought of as valuable again.

Moving the Goal Posts

SI writer Joe Posnanski, on his excellent blog (www.joeposnanski.com) has a idea: swapping the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Kansas City Royals. I whole-heartedly agree. Frankly, any change that lessens the Pirates’ natural desire to lose comically is fine by me.

Posnanski is on to something. Pittsburgh would, I think, thrive in the AL Central; a weak division by anyone’s standards. The Pirates could certainly move than hold their own against the current White Sox and Indians teams and likely wouldn’t be embarrassed by Minnesota or Detroit. A year or two to allow their current crop of prospects to develop (including the opportunity to let Pedro Alvarez acclimatise to the Majors as a DH) and the Pirates could conceivable make a run at the post-season, something highly unlikely to happen in their current league.

The less said about the Royals’ chances in the NL Central the better. That team will be appalling no matter where it plays.

Joe’s idea got me thinking about other potential swaps that might benefit both teams involved. I thought about a Texas team swap: Rangers to the NL, Astros to the AL. I can see the upside in this for the Rangers: get into a division without the Angels in it, big gates when the Dodgers and Giants come to visit, the amount of HRs their lineup will hit playing so many games at either Arlington or Coors Field. Try as a might though I don’t see much upside for Houston, other than the fact that their young non-Roy Oswalt pitching core will see a reduction in collective ERA from pitching so many games at Safeco Field and the Oakland Collesium.

No, as far as I’m aware the best, more mutually beneficial trade would be for the two Florida teams to swap leagues. Everyone’s a winner here!

Tampa Bay have played like a National League team throughout Madden’s tenure as manager. Their recent improvements are hampered by the resources the Red Sox and Yankees have available and it is decidedly unlikely that they will ever emerge as a consistent division winner, or wild-card contender. Plus, they don’t have a proper DH.

A move to the NL East would allow the Rays the opportunity to contend for a wild-card spot (if not the division itself, assuming the Phillies don’t stay dominant forever), plus draw fans to Tropicana Field with the prospect of several repeats of the 2008 World Series every year. Jason Heyward and Braves should also provide Tampa with another big-gate attraction similar (if not equal) to the visits of the Yankees and Sox.

The Marlins need a reason for people to go to their revolting ball-park. The Yankees and the Red Sox are this reason. Dolphin Stadium should sell out for a repeat of the 2003 World Series against the Yankees right? Or, how about Josh Beckett returning to Miami, or Hanley Ramirez getting the opportunity to punish his former employers for shipping him off to this wretched franchise?

The Marlins don’t stand much chance of competing in the AL East at the moment, but, given the new stadium and the (presumably) increased revenue flow that the move would generate, it seems possible that the days of Miami fire-sales could come to the end and the team could return to the now barely-plausible days of being a World Series contender.

Seems sensible to me.

How about swapping the Red Sox with the Phillies, I could get behind that.

Give Tim a chance!

Last night Bruce Bochy lost his mind.

Tim Lincecum was pitching an incredible game at AT&T park. 8 1/3 innings, 3 hits, 1 ER and boat-load of Ks. Yet ‘the Freak’ walks the second hitter in the 9th only to be immediately yanked by Bochy and replaced by the permanently enraged (and brave to the point of disaster) Brian Wilson. Wilson promptly blew the game (he didn’t even blow the save as all he needed to do was secure 2 outs), setting the plate for the inevitable extra-innings victory by the Phillies.

Lincecum had thrown 106 pitches.

Initially I had intended this post to focus around the increasingly popular issues of pitch-counts, particularly in the face of players being on the brink of making history (a la CC Sabathia and Ubaldo Jiminez). However, I’m not sure there’s much I can add to that debate. Let it just be said that, for the record, pitch-counts and late-season shut downs are bad for baseball. They are bad for the excitement of the games themselves (a hot topic given the recent comments by umpires about the pace of the game), they are bad for the fans who pay to see aces like Sabathia and Lincecum go deep into games and they are bad for the legacy and achievement of the pitchers involved. While no-one wants to see a league littered with once great pitchers becoming the next Mark Prior or Kerry Wood big league managers should be giving these pitchers the chance to stay in games if they feel they can. Lincecum had a huge smile on his face after getting the first out in the 9th yesterday. He wasn’t given the chance to stay in the game. Why not? The guy is a two-time Cy Young winner, no-one on the Giants gives that team a better chance to win the game than Lincecum, even at 106 pitches.

Rather than getting bogged down in the comparative merits of pitch counts and arm preservation I shall change the theme of this post entirely. It is an unashamed peon to the genius of Lincecum and a plea for the Giants to do all they can to give the guy a chance to win a historic third Cy Young.

Let’s face it, if Tim is to stand a chance of picking up the award against the far better supported likes of Carpenter, Wainwright and Halladay he has to be given every chance to win games he starts.

With a line-up that fades into obscurity rapidly after Pablo Sandoval and (arguably) Bengie Molina, Lincecum is only going to get so many chances to win games 3-1 against the stacked offence of the Phillies.

The Cy Young voters had an anomalous year last year and voted for Lincecum despite his having less wins that the Cardinal’s twin aces. With a prospect of a Lincecum-Halladay showdown this year the Giants need to do all they can to give Tim the best shot he can get. After all there is a lot in it for them. San Francisco is still best known as the home of Barry Bonds, the home of Barry Zito and his grotesque contract (which, admittedly is becoming less and less burdensome as he finally performs). AT&T park was buzzing yesterday as San Franciscans clamoured to travel over the grid-locked bridge to see Lincecum’s ‘poetry-in-motion’ delivery. If Lincecum wins a third straight Cy Young he enters the rarefied atmosphere of pitching greatness; he becomes Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez and Dwight Gooden. He becomes a hall of famer.

In short, Giants: Tim Lincecum has earned your trust and the right to win games on his own terms, don’t screw him up.

The Pittsburgh Pirates: .500 Team!

What I am about to suggest my sound strange....

The Pittsburgh Pirates can be a .500 team in 2010.

Yes, I know, popular opinion would seem to suggest that it is three horse race between the Pirates, the Nationals and the Royals (and the Athletics too if you ask me, Rajai Davis and Andrew Bailey notwithstanding that team is going to stink) to determine who is the worst team in baseball. Personally, having watched the Nats’ ‘new team’ player thus far in spring training I think they have a legitimate shot of being even worse that the 2009 version, Stephen Strasburg or no Stephen Strasburg (who, for the record, I did not think was as ‘dazzling’ as MLB.com’s reporters would suggest in his first spring training outing).

The Pirates however look to have actually made some really good progress this off-season and are now only a few early season moves away from suprising a lot of people.

As a quick projection of the Pittsburgh starting team I would imagine it looks something like this:

C: Ryan Doumit
1B: Garrett Jones
2B: Akinori Iwamura
3B: Andy LaRoche
SS: Bobby Crosby
LF: Lastings Milledge
CF: Andrew McCutchen
RF: Ryan Church

Rotation:
Zach Duke
Paul Maholm
Charlie Morton
Ross Ohlendorff
Kevin Hart

Bullpen:
Joel Hanrahan
Evan Meek
Octavio Dotel
D.J. Carrasco
Donnie Veal
Javier Lopez
Brendan Donnelly

Now obviously this isn’t the same type of calibre team as the Yankees, Red Sox or Phillies but you could do a lot worse that this lineup. I would go as far as to suggest that this lineup is as good as half the teams in the league. It certainly compares favourably to that of Houston, Kansas City, the Mets, Florida, Toronto, Oakland and San Francisco. It compares hugely favourably to that of Washington.

I would suggest that all the Pirate really need at this point (bearing in mind they have some high-ceiling prospects like Brad Lincoln, Dan McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez in the minors) is a veteran pitcher to anchor the rotation and a veteran power bat to provide instruction to young (or inexperienced) hitters like McCutchen, Jones and Jeff Clement and provide a few pinch hit/spot start bombs.

In short what the Pirates need to do if go out and sign Pedro Martinez. Petey is still a draw, is still exciting to watch and will still bring people to the ballpark. The Pirates have the nicest ballpark in the National League, they just need to give the casual fan a reason to go there. Pedro could be that reason. Not to mention the fact that he was pretty damn good last year for the Phillies.

In terms of the veteran slugger the possibilities are far greater. Jermaine Dye (although could be too expensive), Joe Crede, Geoff Jenkins, Gary Sheffield, Carlos Delgado (if healthy). All of these players could play a valuable role in this young, talented Pittsburgh club. Most have won world series and all have shown that, when healthy, they can rake. All, I suspect at this late point could be acquired on 1 year, incentive laden contracts for way below their October asking price.

On a side note, the Pirates also need to sign Rocco Baldelli, but that’s an entirely different matter, so do 29 other teams!