The Giants of Moneyball

I’m saving a proper post with which to close the 2010 baseball season until the season is truly wrapped and we know who the MVP and Cy Young award winners are. However, clearly I couldn’t stay away.

To begin with, congratulations to the San Francisco Giants, thoroughly deserving winners of the World Series. It is a bitter pill to swallow for a Red Sox fan as, although I like the Giants and was glad to see them in the World Series, how can one all-pitching/no-hitting team do so well and another do so miserably.

The answer of course is clear. The Red Sox were meant to be a pitching and defence heavy team who scored runs where they could. Instead they became a team which got Cy Young calibre seasons out of its two lowest paid starters and mediocre to poor performances out of $50,000,000 worth of pitchers (Lackey, Beckett and Matsuzaka). The great defence thing didn’t happen either, although as Derek Jeter managed to pick up his 5th Gold Glove at SS this week who really knows anything about defence – all these advanced fielding stats could be nonsense and many Jeter is the new Ozzie Smith. Instead what we had for 2010 in Boston was a horrendously fragile team which leaked runs like a sieve (especially on the days neither Jon Lester nor Clay Buchholz pitched) and offensively….umm, well offensively they had Adrian Beltre.

Much of the off season debate for the Red Sox will focus on whether or not to resign Beltre and Victor Martinez. The answer to both questions is no.

Martinez is worth re-signing ONLY if he is prepared to become a full-time first baseman. He is simply too poor defensively to continue as the Red Sox catcher. In a division where the Sox play against the likes of B.J. Upton, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson and Carl Crawford (although hopefully he will be suiting up for the Red Sox come 2011, please Theo, just get it done) it is suicide to have someone that bad at throwing out basestealers behind the place. Of course, if Martinez moves to 1st then Youkilis moves to 3rd. Youkilis is a far superior player to Beltre (who, given his track record of over-performing in contract years will likely be far worse next season), therefore there is no need to pay Beltre the $15,000,000 or so over 3 or 4 years he is likely to demand. Clearly a catching tandem of Jason Varitek and Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t going to win anything. Boston should use their bulging minor league system to secure a good young catcher to work with Varitek. My preference would be for Josh Thole of the Mets.

Mike Cameron needs the Old Yella treatment. With Ryan Kalish and Daniel Nava emerging as legitimate big leaguers there is absolutely no need to pay the 37 year old Mike Cameron $5m a year to get hurt every five minutes. He needs dumping back to the NL even if it means eating his contract for the year, after all if we keep him he’ll only get hurt again and we’ll eat the contract anyway.

The whole LF situation will sort itself out one way or another. Come opening day either Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth or Ryan Ludwick will be patrolling Manny’s old stomping ground for the Red Sox. I’m not hugely concerned about this, all three would help the team, although I’ve put them in order of preference.

What is crucial is that the Red Sox find a good, long-term short-stop. Obviously the Red Sox are unlikely to be able to prize the likes of Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitski away from their teams, but they don’t need to. Dustin Pedroia wants to move to SS, he keeps saying it every year! Let him! Then the Red Sox should go out, armed with the likes of Nava, Josh Reddick, Lars Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury (Kalish is more valuable to the Red Sox right now) and attempt to prize a good second baseman from a non-contender. Possibilities (in order of preference) are: Nick Walker (Pirates – Neil Huntington absolutely lives to trade away hot young talent for substandard prospects, give him Ellsbury he’d probably chuck in Pedro Alvarez too, that the long term DH problem sorted), Aaron Hill (Toronto), Scott Sizemore (Detroit), Luis Valbuena (Cleveland).

In summary, I would like my 2011 Boston Red Sox to look like this:

C: Thole/Varitek
1B: Martinez
2B: Walker
3B: Youkilis
SS: Pedroia/Scutaro
LF: Crawford/McDonald
CF: Kalish
RF: Drew/Nava
DH: Ortiz

SP: (in order) Buchholz, Lester, Beckett, Lackey, Matsuzaka
CP: Papelbon (unless he can be traded – highly unlikely).

Right that’s enough Red Sox ranting.

With the Giants winning the World Series I see that there has been a lot of gloating from the anti-Sabremetrics brigade declaring that the Giant’s victory is a public slap in the face for those who put their trust in advanced stats. It is however, simply not true.

“Moneyball” is a very misunderstood book: it is a chronicle of how one small-market, financially weak team achieved modest success, not a bible of how all teams should run their baseball operations. People tend to confuse sabremetrics and money-ball. They are not the same thing. Sabremetrics is the use of advanced statistical methods to evaluate baseball and baseball players in a way that the old, simple stats such as batting average cannot do. Money-ball is about GMs of poorer teams exploiting inefficiencies in the market in order to purchase baseball players who the use of advanced stats suggests can make a valuable contribution to their club for far less than those players who score highly in more traditional statistical catergories.

The thing is the Giants are the exact model of a team which has used advanced statistics and sabremetrics to its advantage. It is has also, with a few noticeable exceptions (Zito and Rowand) played ‘Money-ball’ very effectively too.

The Giants won the World Series on the back of their pitching. This is not surprising, they reached the playoffs on the back of their pitching too. Barry Zito and his $17m a year contract is the odd man out in the Giants rotation and he didn’t even pitch in the post-season. The remaining members of the Giants rotation are all products of their own system: Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. This is very similar to the A’s teams of the early 00’s. Their closer is home grown too, the shaky but exciting Brian Wilson. It the Giants truly decide to play Money-ball they should trade Wilson immediately whilst his stock is high.

The Giants have taken a similar approach with their position players. They recognised mid-way through the season that rookie catcher Buster Posey represented a better option behind the plate then Bengie Molina, and so, Molina and his large contract went to Texas. Posey went on to put up Rookie of the Year numbers.

Aubrey Huff has been one of the most under-rated players in baseball for years. The Giants signed him on a very cheap one year deal. Huff leads the team in HR and RBI.

Andres Torres scuffles around various teams, staying around as a 4th outfielder due to his speed. Rowand gets hurt and the Giants are forced to play Torres everyday. He emerges as one of the best leadoff hitters and most dangerous base-runners in baseball.

Juan Uribe is let go by the White Sox and generally ignored by every team in baseball. The Giants pick him up and he makes the all-star team.

Cody Ross. This is dubious as the Giants only picked him up to prevent the Padres from doing so. But, while the Padres were ruining their team chemistry by introducing Miguel Tejada and Ryan Ludwick to the mix, the Giants quietly went out and picked up Cody Ross who was instrumental in driving the Giants past Atlanta and the Phillies.

Finally, the Giants picked up Pat Burrell on the cheap from Tampa Bay, where he had the worst 18 months of hitting performances I have every witness. Clearly Bruce Bochy deserves a medal of honour, much less a manager of the year award for turning Burrell into a legitimate cleanup hitting down the stretch (although he was dire in the World Series).

So there you go. The San Francisco Giants: not the throwbacks you might think.

Speed Kills

So the Cincinnati Reds’ fairy-tale season has come to a sad end. It was perhaps inevitable but, for the neutral fan at least it’s never nice to see a plucky young team dumped so unceremoniously out of the playoffs by the more polished, more experience team they met in the form of the Philadelphia Phillies. Of course it would have taken a monumental comeback for the Reds to have come back to win a short series after the humiliation of getting so convincingly no-hit in the opener.

Despite feeling sorry for Dusty Baker’s team generally I must admit to feeling slightly smug whilst watching Aroldis Chapman blow game two after coming out of the bullpen to the usual pomp and circumstance. Why? Because he simply isn’t particularly effective and represents everything that is wrong with how we prize our pitchers.

Sure Chapman throws very, very hard and (according to his BB/K rate although he looks extremely hit or miss whenever I’ve watched him) has decent control, that’s all very impressive and makes for copy in sports publications. It does not however make him an effective pitcher. While only a few hitters are able to get around on a 105mph fastball, most will be able to make enough contact to foul one off. Speed will not necessarily get you outs, this has been proven time and time again and yet every time a new phenom emerges with a 100mph+ fastball the media goes gaga over it and common sense goes out of the window.

There is a lot of talk about Chapman becoming a starter next year. I can’t see how this will be a success. He simply doesn’t have the poise that other flame-throwing starters like Strasburg and Verlander do. Plus, how well will his arm hold up? I don’t think that one can even make the argument for Chapman that he will mature and grow into his position. He is, or at least should be a lot more seasoned than Stephen Strasburg was, he’d been a major star in Cuba for years, had travelled internationally and played in the WBC. That is worlds apart from Strasburg’s experience playing college ball. Yet it was Strasburg who made it to the show first, looking like a polished veteran whilst Chapman doesn’t appear until late in the year and, to my mind at least, looks more Joel Zumaya than Nolan Ryan.

Still, I don’t want to labour the Chapman-Strasburg comparison too much as its really not my point. The point of this post is to argue that neither of them are likely to enjoy success over a long period of time. History is not kind to flame-throwing starters. For every Nolan Ryan there are dozens of others who were either forced out of baseball through injury or returned as very different players. We should be very careful about prizing velocity over the other, more fundamental pitching skills. Nolan Ryan after all may have been one of the best pitchers of all time (strikeouts, no-hitters etc) but he was also, in many respects, one of the worst (all time BB leader, poor winning percentage).

Given Strasburg’s unusual poise and his vast assortment of secondary pitches he stands a very good chance of successfully returning from surgery but I think the days of 100mph fastballs are gone. With Strasburg’s range of pitches he simply doesn’t need to throw that hard to be successful, Josh Beckett doesn’t, Roy Halladay doesn’t, not even Tim Lincecum throws that hard – it just isn’t necessary. Chapman however seems to be all about velocity and this will hurt him, just like it killed Zumaya’s career.

Chapman has become a baseball side-show. People come to watch him throw 105mph, not to get people out. It was the same with Zumaya when he was throwing 104mph and yet was not consistent enough to wrestle the Tigers’ closer role from the likes of Todd Jones and Fernando Rodney (another speed merchant who you would never want pitching for your team with the game on the line).

It’s like boxing. It’s not about how hard you can punch your opponent, it’s about knowing his weaknesses and knowing when to punch your opponent. Take a look at the best pitchers of recent years: Glavine, Maddux, Mussina, Pettitte, Wells, Cone. None of them threw hard but they combined for two perfect games and a shelf full of Cy Young awards. Even the era’s hard-throwers: Johnson, Schilling, Clemens used their guile a lot more than today’s flame-throwers.

Baseball fans and writers would do well to remember George Carlin and his routine about the different between baseball and football. Brute force will not win you pennants. If that were the case then Mark Reynolds would be the MVP every year.

The Hall-aday of Fame

After watching the brilliance of Roy Halladay once again on Wednesday night I inevitably began thinking about Doc’s hall of fame chances.

While the value of wins in determining a pitcher’s hall of fame-worthiness is a matter of great debate, a debate I am resolutely on the fence about, Halladay’s win total seems to closely match what would be considered hall worthy at this stage in his career. Halladay is 169-86 with a strong 3.32 ERA for his career thus far. He is 33. Given that his control is likely to last longer than his speed I think it’s definitely plausible that Halladay can pitch into his early 40s and continue to pitch at his current elite level for another 4-5 years. For the sake of argument lets say that Halladay has another 8 years in him as a big league starter. Playing for Philly for half of that I would predict Halladay averages around 17 wins for the next four years, that’s another 68 victories. For the remaining four years I’ll guess that Halladay averages 12 wins a year, another 48. I’ll also assume that Roy picks up an average of 10 losses a season during these years. Calculating loses is harder to do of course as Halladay might find himselves pitching for a non-contender in later years. This leaves Halladay with a career total of 275-166. Combine this with a career ERA in the 3.30-3.60 range and Halladay is clearly a better hall of fame prospect than the likes of Mike Mussina, John Smoltz and Curt Schilling (who are both, in my opinion, clear 3rd of 4th ballot inductees). It leaves him 100 wins over .500 which gets him into the best-of-the-best Pedro Martinez territory.

Without wanting to get bogged down in the advanced stats, which if anything just serve to elevate Roy’s genius, I shall move on to the intagibles which usually play a huge role in deciding who is a hall of famer and who isn’t.

Halladay has appeared in 7 All Star games. He will appear in at least 5 more unless something pretty horrendous happens to him. He has won one Cy Young award and is a lock to win another. This will put him in elite company as a pitcher who has won the award in both leagues. He has thrown a perfect game and a no-hitter – in the same season! At his current rate I would predict that Halladay will come very close to, if not exceed 3000 SO for his career.

In conclusion he is an absolute certainty for the Hall of Fame, first ballot, Greg Maddux style, bet your house on it type candidate.

But…what if Halladay never pitches again. It could happen. He could get hurt, he could join a cult, he could decide to ‘spend time with his family’. What of his chances then? In short, how long does a player have to be dominant and prove themselves as the very best in the game to be considered worthy of Cooperstown? Is it possible for a player’s performance in one season to gain him entry?

For the record I believe that it is possible, or at least it should be. I’ve long held the belief that the hall of fame should be viewed like the MVP award. It is not about selecting the best players from the era, it is about magic, aura and the stories that will live on throughout subsequent re-tellings of baseball history. While no-one minds when the likes of Jim Rice and Andre Dawson are rewarded for careers of consistency and for being very good players, for me, this is the antithesis of what the hall of fame should represent. The hall is about Babe Ruth redefining the game, about DiMaggio’s hit-streak, about Jackie Robinson breaking the colour barrier, about Koufax’s brief brilliance and so on and so until we reach Henderson’s dazzling base-running and Ripken’s beating of Gehrig’s consecutive game record. Sustaining a .300 average or having X amount of 100 RBI seasons just don’t cut it for me. I say it tongue in cheek but I do think there is a great of merit in the view that the sole criteria of election to the hall of fame should be having Ken Burns mention your name when he makes a documentary about the decade in which you played.

That said, I think Roy Halladay’s 2010 season makes the grade. He has done everything a pitcher might hope to do over the course of a long career in the space of one brilliant year. He has won 20 games, he has led his team to the post-season where they have to be considered favourites to win the World Series, he has thrown a perfect game and he has now thrown a post-season no-hitter. Ask any young pitcher starting what they hope to be a lengthy career what they hope to achieve and chances are all of these achievements will be cited. That Halladay has managed to do them all in one year is not simply excellent, it is legendary, it is hall of fame-worthy.

Tim Lincecum is another case in point. Obviously Tim doesn’t have the career numbers of Halladay and, due to his youth he is not eligible for the hall at present. But the magic is there. What could be more magical than the idea of a small, skinny kid who looks more like a character from a Harold and Kumar movie than a big league ball-player emerging from nowhere to win back to back Cy Young awards and put up Ryan-like strikeout numbers whilst almost single-handedly making the Giants a playoff team once again? While ‘the Freak’ has had a down year this year those two years of dominance equal the brief peaks of Pedro Martinez and Whitey Ford and can legitimately be mentioned in the same breath as those of Koufax. While I’m not saying that Tim Lincecum is a hall of famer, at least not yet, he represents the excitement and dazzling dominance that the honour should represent. While I’ve already said that I think Mike Mussina is a hall of famer I would take Lincecum’s brief dominance (even if it all ended tomorrow) over Mussina’s 15 years of simply being very good and very dependable any day. We watch sports to be entertained, to be shocked and to be amazed. We do not watch sports to see talented employees methodically going about their business. That is the distinction.

It comes down more or less to the old adage of whether it is ‘better to burn out than to fade away’. Whitey Ford is a perfect example of this. He was dominant for a very short period of time, then he became the sly villain of the Yankees, using any edge he could to win. Even with his ball tampering later years Ford has a very short career. His career victory total is way below the majority of his hall of fame brethren. He, along with Koufax epitomises the idea of the brief but brilliant career being more interesting and more worth of fame than, for example, the endless succession of fair to very good seasons compiled by Bert Blyleven. MLB needs to do away with this ridiculous 10 years Major League service rule associated with the hall of fame. It is utterly redundant, and, I suspect, would never actually have been enforced. If Albert Pujols had retired at the end of 2009 with 9 consecutive seasons of 30 HR and 100 RBIs, a lifetime .330 average, 3 MVPs and a world series ring would he have been denied entry to Cooperstown because he’d only played for 9 years? I seriously doubt it.

I’ve gone way off piste in this entry but I feel I’ve arrived at a point none the less. We should celebrate excellence over consistency. Roy Halladay is excellent, celebrate him.

BBA Awards 2010

As with the All-Star game the Baseball Bloggers Alliance has asked all of its members to vote for the snappily named end of year awards. Therefore, without further ado, here are my votes.

We’ll begin with the American League:

Connie Mack Award (Best Manager): 1. Joe Madden (Tampa Bay Rays) 2. Terry Francona (Boston Red Sox) 3. Bob Geren (Oakland Athletics)

The Red Sox fan in me wants to give Francona the nod in this category and I think I would be justified in doing so as the Red Sox have been far more competitive than their injury marred roster should have allowed them to be (look for a post trumpeting the positive contributions of the likes of Hall, McDonald and Kalish in the coming days). Still, the Red Sox are not going to make the play-offs and ultimately success is the true measure of an excellent manager. Therefore I'll have to vote for Joe Madden who's Rays have dominated the AL East and outplayed the far richer Yankees all year. The Rays do not have the depth of talent New York and Boston do and therefore their ability to win so many ball-games has to be largely due to do Madden's exciting brand of baseball. I toyed with giving my third place vote to Cito Gaston of the Blue Jays but balked after it dawned on me that they are only over 500 due to Jose Bautista's freak season and Vernon Wells' half a good season. I don't think it's anything Gaston can take credit for. I've got the same reservations about Geren in Oakland and of course its long been whispered that A's managers are simply Billy Beane's puppets but I'm prepared to give Geren the benefit of the doubt and attribute the A's' surprising competitiveness to his managerial decisions. Honourable mention goes to Ron Gardenhire who is a fantastic manager however (aside from the injury to Morneau and Nathan, who as a closer is easily replaceable anyway) the Twin simply had too good a team not to run away with the Central, no managerial heroics necessary. Credit to Ozzie Guillen and his White Sox for pushing them close however.

Willie Mays Award (Rookie of the Year): 1. Austin Jackson (Detroit Tigers) 2. Sergio Santos (Chicago White Sox) 3. Brennan Boesch (Detroit Tigers)

I'm not particularly enthused about any of these guys and other than Jackson who is a clear winner (and yet would not have cracked my top 5 in the NL) the 2nd and 3rd picks could easily be replaced with any number of other AL rookies. While technically a Rookie I've not giving consideration to Neftali Feliz as I think he got too much of a look last year to really count. Honourable mention to Ryan Kalish of the Red Sox who looks to have the makings of an incredible defensive CF (Lord knows the Sox could use one after years of Ellsbury) and some decent pop. Dishonourable mention goes to Matt Tuiasosopo of the Mariners who I picked in my team of 2010 back in April and has spectacularly failed to hit the Mendoza line. Then again, he does play for Seattle, not a lot of role models around there anymore.

Goose Gossage Award (Best Reliever): 1. Joakim Soria (Kansas City Royals) 2. Ryan Perry (Detroit Tigers) 3. Sergio Santos (Chicago White Sox)

First of all I object to the BBA's insistence that this award be named after Gossage. It should be the Lee Smith award. As with the Rookie award the AL has a significantly weaker class than the NL. I'll give Soria the nod, more as compensation for having to play for Kansas City than any real merit. Perry and Santos have both been really solid competitors for their teams, nothing particularly exciting about either of them, but the sort of guys who you'd happily have on your team. Honourable mention to Daniel Bard, Rafael Soriano and Jose Valverde (before he got hurt).

Walter Johnson Award (What the Cy Young should really be called) 1. Trevor Cahill (Oakland Athletics) 2. Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners) 3. Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox) 4. David Price (Tampa Bay Rays) 5. Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox) 6. Francisco Liriano (Minnesota Twins) 7. CC Sabathia (New York Yankees) 8. Brett Anderson (Oakland Athletics) 9. Cliff Lee (Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers) 10. Matt Garza (Tampa Bay Rays)

I must say I'm a bit old-fashioned when it comes to the W. I complained bitterly the other year when CC Sabathia beat Josh Beckett for the Cy Young even though Josh had 20 wins (oh to have more years like that!). However I read Joe Posnanski's excellent article comparing CC and King Felix's starts this year and I am sold, Felix has had by far the better year. I'm putting Hernandez second behind Cahill simply because I think the young A is better able to satisfy both the advanced stat and the Joe Morgan sides of me; he has enough wins, he has the low ERA and has come up big in the big game this year. Jon Lester has emerged as a legit ace in Boston and has a shot at 20 wins. Buchholz and Price are both Cy Young award winners of the future. I'll pick Price over Buchholz here partly to deflect accusations of Red Sox bias but also because Price carries with him an excitement that Clay doesn't. Liriano has been great for the Twin, who, at the start of the year lacked for a legit ace - they clearly have one now. If it weren't for the wins I'd leave CC out of the top ten entirely but deep down I know I couldn't really justify it. Brett Anderson is another white-hot prospect who if he can stay healthy will be a dominant pitcher for years to come. Cliff Lee has struggled lately but has the best walk to K ratio in baseball history this year! Garza, with his no-hitter and utter dominance against the Red Sox rounds off the top ten. Honourable mention goes to Carl Pavano who has completed his return to baseball respectability admirably and is a big part of the Twin's success this season.

Stan Musial Award (MVP) 1. Paul Konerko (Chicago White Sox) 2. Josh Hamilton (Texas Rangers) 3. Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers) 4. Adrian Beltre (Boston Red Sox) 5. Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay Rays) 6. Robinson Cano (New York Yankees) 7. Joe Mauer (Minnesota Twins) 8. Alex Rios (Chicago White Sox) 9. Jose Bautista (Toronto Blue Jays 10. Vlad Guerrero (Texas Rangers)

I want to make it very clear that I regard the MVP award as just that, the most VALUABLE player award. I believe my voting largely reflects this. While the White Sox are not going to make the playoffs this year they came close and the fact that they did so is almost entirely due to Paul Konerko's monster year. Konerko is at the stage in his career where he can sit back, hit 15-20 bombs a year, knock in 60-70 and get a pat on the back from everyone (sit Jason Varitek only less so). Instead Chicago's captain has put up Albert Pujols numbers while still providing the emotional heart of Ozzie Guillen's line-up. Hamilton is much the same, and would have one this award if it weren't for his injury. He just seems to be the talisman the Rangers needed this season. Miguel Cabrera is the best hitter in the AL but his value is significantly less than Konerko's. The same is true of Longoria, Cano and Beltre - all three had fantastic seasons and all will win MVP votes, however all three played in good lineups with a lot of other talent around to support them (and pad their RBI totals). I pick Beltre first as, given the Red Sox's problems staying healthy he carried the team on his back offensively for big portions of this year. Joe Mauer is Joe Mauer, a catcher who can win batting titles - that will always be of incredible value. Jose Baustista will probably never have another year like this and I doubt that the Blue Jays would have finished any worse off had he not hit 50 bombs. Still, 50 HR is 50 HR and deserves MVP consideration I suppose. Vlad and Alex Rios both had big bounce-back years and really helped out their clubs.

And now for the National League:

Connie Mack: 1. Bud Black (San Diego Padres) 2. Bruce Bochy (San Francisco Giants) 3. Charlie Manuel (Philadelphia Phillies)

It would appear that the Padres are going to blow their lead and end up out of the post-season. Still, no matter how things end up the 2010 Padres has absolutely no business even being a .500 team led alone one that entered September in first place in their division. Bud Black deserves huge credit for that (as does Kevin Towers, the new Arizona GM). Bruce Bochy is a similar case, he has done very well with what was and (to a lessen extent post Burrell and Guillen) is a very poor offensive team. As for Charlie Manuel, consider him the poor man's Terry Francona.

Willie Mays: 1. Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) 2. Buster Posey (San Francisco Giants) 3. Gaby Sanchez (Florida Marlins)

For more detailed discussion of the NL Rookie of Year award please see a previous post. There I promoted Sanchez as the true winner over Heyward. Since then Sanchez has faded while Heyward has carried on producing at a high level. Buster Posey has had an amazing year and, given that he is a catcher, I would like to pick him over Heyward. However Heyward's WAR is significantly higher and he is a more exciting player to watch.

Goose Gossage Award: 1. Luke Gregerson (San Diego Padres) 2. Johnny Venters (Atlanta Braves) 3. Nick Masset (Cincinnati Reds)

I've decided not to get over excited about closers for this vote. Billy Wagner has been sensational this year and would be a deserving winner. However Gregerson, Venters and Masset have done exceptional work all year long without the attention and praise lavished on their 9th inning counterparts. Essentially all these nominees are inter-changeable, the current order is simply how I viewed it at the time of writing, all are worthy winners who played huge roles in their team's success.

Walter Johnson: 1. Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies) 2. Mat Latos (San Diego Padres) 3. Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado Rockies) 4. Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins) 5. Tim Hudson (Atlanta Braves) 6. Roy Oswalt (Houston Astros/Philadelphia Phillies) 7. Adam Wainwright (St Louis Cardinals) 8. Chris Carpenter (St Louis Cardinals) 9. Jon Garland (San Diego Padres) 10. Yovanni Gallardo (Milwaukee Brewers)

Roy Halladay did the impossible and managed to live up to the hype, Jimenez throws a no-hitter, Halladay throws a perfecto. That's a pretty good way of summing up the whole Cy Young battle really. Given Philly's injury problems (which, to be fair, are a little over-reported) one can't even make the claim that Halladay's season is diminished by moving to a contending team. Latos gets the runner up vote partly due to his youth and partly due to playing for a team so offensively impotent. Jimenez has a great year and would be a worthy winner, he just lacked the consistency of Halladay and Latos. Josh Johnson has become the forgotten man of NL pitching. His one run complete game against Philly was forgotten as Halladay threw the perfect game, yet he beat Doc in a low scoring follow up the next week. Without any of the hype of the Jimenez-Halladay Cy Young race Johnson has quietly put up a season that rivals both of them. Oswalt, Carpenter, Wainwright and Hudson's seasons are all pretty much interchangeable. I'll put Oswalt, Wainwright and Hudson above Carpenter simply because Chris seems to be a gigantic d#ck. Jon Garland is a gamer, pure and simple. A big reason for the Padre's success. Gallardo is the only bright spot as far as pitching is concerned in Milwaukee (no matter how many ludicrous moustaches they make their closers grow).

Stan Musial: 1. Joey Votto (Cincinnati Reds) 2. Albert Pujols (St Louis Cardinals) 3. Troy Tulowitski (Colorado Rockies) 4. Adrian Gonzalez (San Diego Padres) 5. Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado Rockies) 6. David Wright (New York Mets) 7. Scott Rolen (Cincinnati Reds) 8. Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves) 9. Brian McCann (Atlanta Braves) 10. Aubrey Huff (San Francisco Giants)

A clearer choice than in the AL. Joey Votto is unquestionably the MVP of the NL. Votto emerged as a legitimate triple crown threat and powered the Reds to their first post-season appearance in years. Extra credit should go to Votto for returning so strong from his trouble last year. Pujols is Pujols, he has another MVP calibre year but simply (given the Cardinals' collapse and the good year enjoyed by Matt Holliday) wasn't as valuable as Votto. Troy Tulowitski is comfortably the best short shop in baseball and is currently on a one-man mission to get the Rockies to the play-offs. Given the decline of Todd Helton expect Tulo to be the face of the Rockies for the foreseeable future. Speaking of one-man-offences, Adrian Gonzalez can be considered a legit MVP on the basis of value alone. Cargo drops to fifth on this list and again the reason for this is value. His numbers are inflated by Coors Field but what's more he simply isn't the most valuable player on his own team, yet alone the whole league. Neither Rolen, Wright, Heyward, McCann or Huff are true contenders for the MVP, they all however have had big years and were of great value to their teams, particularly Rolen and Huff - two great players who's solid, dependable contributions are often over-looked in favour of their more flashy team-mates.

Random Thoughts Part I

Despite what I might have said in my previous post about the near certainty of a rematch of last year’s world series – albeit with a different outcome, I saw something last night which has changed my mind…

The Giants are really good and, with a bit of luck (and Troy Tulowitski cooling off*) could actually go all the way in the even-weaker-than-normal National League.

* It infuriates me that Carlos Gonzalez is getting all the hype and all the praise around baseball while Tulo is ignored. Cargo may have the gaudy, Coors Field inflated triple crown stats (even in this regard Pujols and Votto are miles ahead in the MVP as far as I’m concerned – Votto will win it just out of everyone’s desire to actually have a sense of variety to the Barry Bonds**/Albert Pujols award proceedings) but it is Tulo that powers the Rockies both offensively, defensively and in leadership. For that alone he is a much better MVP candidate than Gonzalez.

** Another Bonds thought after the post a few weeks ago. It seems almost a foregone conclusion that the BBWA will once again seek to moralise about steroids when the time comes to induct (or not induct) Bonds into the hall of fame. Fine, well actually it’s not fine but it’s expected. However, Bonds won 4 of his 7 MVP awards during the time period in which he is widely believed to have been cheating. Where were the blow-hards in the BBWA who feel it falls on them to prescribe morality to the professional athlete when the association was voting for these awards? Where was the protest votes when a Lawrence Taylor size Barry Bonds was hitting 73 bombs or walking a billion times a season? That’s right, nowhere. Barry Bonds is, whether we like it or not, a first ballot unanimous hall of famer. If his records are tainted (to my mind they are) then it is MLB’s fault and there is no moral nor legal grounds for anyone in the BBWA to exclude the greatest offensive player in baseball history from the hall of fame for deeds which are (technically) still unproven and (more importantly in terms of the ongoing Selig vs Bonds saga) not against the MLB rules at the time. If we can prove that Bonds took steroids after 2004 then fine, we can rip up the record book and give Bonds the Pete Rose*** treatment with at least a reasonably secure basis for doing so, until then he has to be inducted. Last time I checked the bat McGwire hit his tainted record breaking home run is in the hall of fame so Cooperstown can hardly be considered a steroid free zone now can it?

*** I think Pete’s near continuous coming clean is finally working. I caught a few games of the love-in that seemed to follow his reappearance at the Great American Ballpark during the Red’s series with Arizona and I think that Rose may be very close to getting his ban lifted and finally getting in the Hall. Ideally I’d like to see Bonds and Rose go in at the same induction, that would be amazing. No-one cares about the likes of Andre Dawson and Jim Rice limping into the hall 15 years or so after the face, this simply doesn’t generate enough drama. Bonds and Rose stood on the platform at Cooperstown smirking as they once and for all got their way over the baseball establishment would be beyond brilliant – ESPN could make movies about it.

But back to the Giants. I saw them destroy Milwaukee last night and they look mightily impressive. Buster Posey would be rookie of the year in any year other than this one. Andres Torres seems to have become a fantastic lead-off hitter. Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen are greatly improved and Aubrey Huff is being his usual under-rated, hugely productive self. Plus, on their day, that top of the rotation trio of Lincecum, Cain and Zito is as good as Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels (Ok, no is isn’t but Cole Hamels is very rarely on his day). The only disappointment for the Giants this year seems to be Pablo Sandoval who’s Vlad Guerrero-lite, swing at everything (figuratively rather than literally, no-one has ever accused Sandoval of being light) act seems to have caught up with him. Still, the Giants are able to peddle panda hats to all-comers so all is not lost.

Also Brian Wilson has a brilliant name is looks exactly how a closer should look.

I’m feeling disjointed in my thinking today so I’ll launch back into random, unconnected baseball musings…

Mark Grace may be the best thing about watching MLB. Since they traded Dan Haren I literally cannot think of any reason why anyone would watch the D’backs apart from Gracie. I estimate that I’ve watched more D’backs games this year than any other team (Red Sox excluded). The man is comedy gold. ESPN need to get Orel Hershiser off Sunday Night Baseball and get Gracie on there. It would be incredible. Think of the expression on John Miller’s face as he’s sandwiched between Joe Morgan’s endless wittering on about balance and Gracie proclaiming almost everything to be “Big League”. They should all be hired to do the Oscars next year. Fantastic.

Speaking of things Mark Grace thinks are ‘big league’ I really must express how completely unimpressed I am with Aroldis Chapman. Sure he throws unbelievable heat, but so does Daniel Bard and no one really wants him anywhere near a pitching mound. I’ve seen most of Chapman’s appearances so far and he really doesn’t look at that great. While commentators continuously point to the fact that he is yet to give up an earned run, he got well and truly lit up by the Rockies in one of his relief appearances, promptly allowing all 3 inherited runners to score. Essentially the guy just looks like a left-handed Kyle Farnsworth. If he was playing in the AL where plate discipline is regarded as a necessary element of success rather than a boring inconvenience (see Reynolds, Mark) then the hushed voices bigging up his dominance would be quickly silenced. Another valid Gracie point about Chapman is that he is sabotaging the closing career of Francisco Cordero. Cordero has looked very shaky recently and it is largely Dusty Baker’s fault. By insisting that Chapman act as a lefty set up man and have him throw wild 100+ mph heat at hitter all Baker is doing is making Cordero’s mid-90s stuff look like a welcome rest bite come the 9th. This is not the sort of thing one ought to be doing in the middle of a pennant race, especially when you are a team with a much poorer rotation than any of your likely postseason opponents. If the Reds are going to achieve anything come October it is going to be through their bull pen. This issue with having Chapman set up Cordero needs to be sorted out immediately. Also, this is a lousy way to repay Nick Massett for a fantastic season out of the pen.

Finally, just how bad are the Cubs? At the start of the season I optimistically predicted that the Pirates could become a .500 team. Clearly that proved to be way off the mark (this lack of success in previous predictions had led me to predict a Yankees-Phillies world series as I desperately hope to be proved wrong). However at least the Pirates have a lot of up and coming young talent and I’m certain that they will be nowhere near as bad next year. The Cubs however are a sinking ship. Ramirez and Soriano have been as poor as they are over-paid, Carlos Zambrano has lost his mind (again) and Carlos Marmol has no idea where the strike zone is. While Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro do represent hope for the future (although Castro is an error machine as SS) the Cubs have precious little else to feel positive about – let’s face it, when your best player is Marlon Byrd you are in serious trouble. Ozzie Guillen is no doubt loving it.

Championship Calibre Players and Playoff Predictions

I was reading an interesting article the other about how the Cardinals won’t make the post season because they simply do not have enough ‘Championship Calibre’ players. Now, on the face of it this is true. Yes the Cardinals have Pujols and Holliday, unquestionably the best 3-4 in baseball and the have Carpenter and Wainwright, a duo close to if not the best 1-2 in any major league rotation. But the problem seems to be that, aside from these four stars St Louis have precious little else.

This got me to thinking: how many championship calibre players does a team need to possess if it is to stand a chance of winning a World Series? Now clearly most teams cannot afford (or at leas the owners will insist they cannot afford) to stock their entire 25 man roster with championship calibre players. Therefore we have to look at players who, while not of championship calibre as very good players who could play on most, if not all major league teams – for sake of clarity we’ll call them near-championship calibre (NCC). Evidently the point being made about the 2010 Cardinals is that they do not have enough NCCs to support their four stars.

Taking a look at the world series winners from the past six seasons I feel their rosters breakdown as so:

2009 New York Yankees

Championship Calibre: Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, CC, Rivera
NCC: Damon, Pettitte, Swisher, Cano, Posada

2008 Philadelphia Phillies

Championship Calibre: Howard, Rollins, Utley, Lidge, Hamels
NCC: Werth, Victorino, Burrell, Blanton, Moyer*

2007 Boston Red Sox

Championship Calibre: Manny, Ortiz, Lowell (he had a huge, MVP calibre year), Beckett, Papelbon
NCC: Matsuzaka, Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis, Drew

2006 St Louis Cardinals

Championship Calibre: Pujols, Wainwright, Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter (although he was hurt)
NCC: Eckstein, Weaver, Molina, Isringhausen

2005 Chicago White Sox

Championship Calibre: Konerko, Dye, Thomas, Buerhle, Thome
NCC: Garland, Rowand, Contreras, Pierzynski, Garcia

2004 Boston Red Sox

Championship Calibre: Manny, Schilling, Martinez, Ortiz, Damon
NCC: Varitek, Cabrera, Mueller, Lowe, Foulke

While some of these choices are, I’ll admit, arguable and the point can easily be made that the ’06 Cardinals we not an especially good regular season team, there does seem to be a pattern emerging here. Generally speaking a world series winning team will have around five clearly championship calibre players and roughly an equal amount of players near that standard.

If (and I recognise that it is a big if) we accept that having these players is likely to lead to post-season success then how to this year’s frontrunners measure up?

American League East

New York Yankees

CC: CC, Teixiera, A-Rod, Cano, Rivera
NCC: Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, Burnett, Posada

Tampa Bay Rays

CC: Longoria, Price, Crawford
NCC: Garza, Upton, Pena, Soriano

American League Central

Minnesota Twins

CC: Mauer, Liriano, Thome, Young, Morneau (if healthy)
NCC: Pavano, Capps, Fuentes, Cuddyer

Chicago White Sox

CC: Manny, Quentin, Konerko
NCC: Rios, Danks, Jenks, Ramirez

American League West

Texas Rangers

CC: Hamilton, Kinsler, Lee, Vlad, Young
NCC: Feliz, Andrus, Cruz

Oakland Athletics

CC: Cahill
NCC: Bailey, Cust, Crisp.

This seems to back up actually results, The Yankees will eventually outlast the Rays because their talent base is bigger, the Rays do not have enough star players to last against a team with a perfect 5-5 ratio like New York. The Twins are almost as good as the Yankees, these two teams will meet in the ALCS and the Twins will give the Yankees a good run of it, ultimately they will lose because of a lack of pitching. The West is a weak division, the Rangers are reliant on too few players and will not stand up to a 5-5 team over the course of a play-off series.

Now the National League, and the Cardinals:

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

CC: Halladays, Oswalt, Utley, Howard, Werth
NCC: Rollins, Hamels, Victorino, Ibanez, Lidge

Atlanta Braves

CC: McCann, Heyward, Hudson, Wagner
NCC: D-Lee, Prado, Hanson, Glaus

National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

CC: Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce
NCC: Stubbs, Cabrera, Volquez, Chapman

St Louis Cardinals

CC: Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright
NCC: Garcia, Rasmus

National League West

San Diego Padres

CC: Bell, Gonzalez
NCC: Latos, Garland, Tejeda

San Francisco Giants

CC: Lincecum, Cain, Wilson
NCC: Huff, Sandoval, Burrell, Torres

Colorado Rockies

CC: Cargo, Tulo, Jimenez, Street
NCC: Helton, Giambi, Young Jr

This seems to bare out the actually situation too. The Phillies should win the East, they have the best ratio of any of the NL contenders, the Braves are a close second and therefore should win the Wild Card. Cincinnati’s 4-4 split (I considered putting Gomes down as a NCC but thought Drew Stubbs was enough of a stretch) will get them into the postseason but I don’t think they are a match for Philly or Atlanta over 7 games. The West is a dogfight between three teams, none of which have the depth of quality to beat the two teams from the East. St Louis have the worst supporting cast of any of the contenters.

Following this model for assessing team’s chances, which I do acknowledge is incredibly subjective as its my assessment of players which determines who is a CC, NCC or also-ran. However I’m prepared to use it to make my play-off predictions. Here they are:

AL

New York over Texas (3-1)
Minnesota over Tampa (3-2)

New York over Minnesota (4-2)

NL

Philly over Colorado (3-2)
Atlanta over Cincinnati (3-1)

Philly over Atlanta (4-1)

World Series:

Philly over New York (4-1) – This is based on pitching, A.J. Burnett will have to pitch at least once in the series.

Coincidently, at the start of the season there was, as far as I’m concerned only one team with six championship calibre players: The New York Mets (CC: Wright, Bay, Beltran, Santana, K-Rod, Reyes)

Funny how things work out.

Too Hot to Touch?

After watching Manny Ramirez perched in the White Sox dugout during their game with the Indians on Tuesday night as question cropped into my head: at what point does the baggage a player bring with them out way the value of their playing ability?

It seems that this question varies, or at least should vary, on where that team is in the standings and where it hopes to be come the year’s end. For example, a poor team, facing diminished gate receipts as they fall out of contention should probably covet the services of a controversial star more than a team in the middle of a play-off race who can ill-afford to risk their team chemistry for the sake of some extra pop in the line-up. Of course this has not proven to be the case. If it were true then why would the out of contention Dodgers place Manny on waivers and why would the contending White Sox (who are crammed full of good power hitters) take the risk?

Of course it is Manny, the baseball definition of the exception that proves the rule.

It must be said that Manny is not all that controversial in the grand scheme of things. Yes, he was suspended for 50 games last year, yes he has spent the majority of his Dodgers career holding out for obscene amounts of money and yes he did leave the Red Sox in less than dignified circumstances. But he’s clearly not yet reached the level of controversy necessary for team to avoid him like the plague. I’m sure that still being capable of 30HR 120RBI .300+ seasons doesn’t harm his chances either.

When we talk about controversial players there will always be one name that looms large over all others: Barry Lamar Bonds.

Bonds (allegedly) was so keen to sign on with a team in 2008 that his agent offered Barry’s services to all 30 Major League teams for the league minimum, pro-rated. Even that minimum salary was to be “given to kids” and yet no team offered Bonds a contract. Now, while its been rumoured that this was more a PR stunt designed to salvage Barry’s less than stellar public perception than a genuine offer it does provide an interesting discussion point. Assuming that the offer was genuine, why was no team prepared to give Barry a spot in the line-up for half a season?

Obviously the negatives with Barry are well-documented; allegations of steroid use, long held reputation as a club-house cancer etc. But the fact remains that, even at his most hated and reviled, Barry Bonds drew people to the ball-park. Think of the marketing possibilities had Barry signed on with the Royals or the Blue Jays: “Barry Bonds, after defiling the consecrated ground of the National League dares to infiltrate the AL, quickly hurry down to Kaufman stadium to boo this villain”. The Royals would make an absolute killing in merchandise and ticket sales and could easily use this money to finance getting in some legitimate free agent talent come seasons end.

And of course, let’s not forget that Barry Bonds come the end of the 2007 season was far from done as a big league hitter. He didn’t limp towards his final game in the way Giambi, McGwire and countless other ageing sluggers have. He still had the intimidation factor, still had plenty of pop left in his bat and was still putting up video-game level OBP. He could have made any number of teams better, not just AL teams. Manny Ramirez was still ‘playing’ LF for the Red Sox at the time and I’m that even a 44 year old Barry Bonds can’t have been that bad in the field. Hell, people were still paying Adam Dunn money to play the outfielder in 2008.

Yet with Bonds it is clear that his reputation, tarnished legacy and the inevitable headaches having him and what he has come to represent on the ball club were considered more important to Major League GMs than what he might be able to contribute financially and offensively. In Bond’s case this is probably fair enough, although I would argue that it is the job of every GM in baseball to wheel and deal in order to field the best, most competitive team possible. If Bonds is allowed to play by Bud Selig and the commissioner’s office and is willing to play for the minimum then I don’t see how any GM has any moral duty to refuse to sign him. Frankly if Bonds is a disgrace to baseball and a cheat then he should have been suspended and removed from the game publically by Selig. That he wasn’t and isn’t means that he is fair game (although there is every chance that teams did want to sign Bonds and Selig told them not to, he could have been black-listed like Jose Canseco keeps claiming to have been).

All in all, while there are holes in the idea that Bonds’ reputation is too big an albatross for the sensible franchise to bare, I can sympathise with teams shying away from signing players like Bonds on this basis as long as there is consistency. I’ve got no problem with it if there is some sort of united front presented by baseball which states that players with a certain degree of infamy are not to be hired.

It is however wholly inconsistent to have the Giants herd big Barry out of the back door of AT&T park with embarrassed looks on their faces and then have the Cardinals offer Mark McGwire the hitting coach job. Since when was McGwire any less culpable that Bonds is for the so-called ‘steroid era’? Sure, McGwire admitted (in a manner of speaking) to using PEDs and isn’t facing perjury charges like Bonds and Clemens but this doesn’t make him any less guilty when it comes to allegations of cheating the game/defiling history etc. Plus, at the time of his appointment Big Mac hadn’t owned up to anything. There are many problems with having McGwire as a hitting coach (e.g. what can a all-or-nothing slugger like McGwire teach Holliday and Pujols about hitting?) but the most startling is that MLB is allowing this to happen in the first place. Are we going to see Clemens sign on as a pitching coach somewhere? I doubt it. I know there is an argument to be made that Bonds and Clemens are untouchable as long as there are current legal proceedings active against them but that really doesn’t pass the smell test. Didn’t Miguel Tejeda start this season with the threat of jail time and deportation hanging over him?

Clearly there is some sort of ranking system going on here, Bonds, Clemens, Canseco, Palmeiro and a few others (John Rocker hopefully) are to be ostracised and banished from the game whilst some, equally tarnished players are to be given second chances (Sosa, Ramirez, A-Rod, Giambi, McGwire). If we are to truly put the steroid era behind us and move on there needs to be some sort of clarity about this issue. Either they are all guilty and all excluded or they are all to be given the opportunity to return and make amends like McGwire has.