Random Thoughts Part I

Despite what I might have said in my previous post about the near certainty of a rematch of last year’s world series – albeit with a different outcome, I saw something last night which has changed my mind…

The Giants are really good and, with a bit of luck (and Troy Tulowitski cooling off*) could actually go all the way in the even-weaker-than-normal National League.

* It infuriates me that Carlos Gonzalez is getting all the hype and all the praise around baseball while Tulo is ignored. Cargo may have the gaudy, Coors Field inflated triple crown stats (even in this regard Pujols and Votto are miles ahead in the MVP as far as I’m concerned – Votto will win it just out of everyone’s desire to actually have a sense of variety to the Barry Bonds**/Albert Pujols award proceedings) but it is Tulo that powers the Rockies both offensively, defensively and in leadership. For that alone he is a much better MVP candidate than Gonzalez.

** Another Bonds thought after the post a few weeks ago. It seems almost a foregone conclusion that the BBWA will once again seek to moralise about steroids when the time comes to induct (or not induct) Bonds into the hall of fame. Fine, well actually it’s not fine but it’s expected. However, Bonds won 4 of his 7 MVP awards during the time period in which he is widely believed to have been cheating. Where were the blow-hards in the BBWA who feel it falls on them to prescribe morality to the professional athlete when the association was voting for these awards? Where was the protest votes when a Lawrence Taylor size Barry Bonds was hitting 73 bombs or walking a billion times a season? That’s right, nowhere. Barry Bonds is, whether we like it or not, a first ballot unanimous hall of famer. If his records are tainted (to my mind they are) then it is MLB’s fault and there is no moral nor legal grounds for anyone in the BBWA to exclude the greatest offensive player in baseball history from the hall of fame for deeds which are (technically) still unproven and (more importantly in terms of the ongoing Selig vs Bonds saga) not against the MLB rules at the time. If we can prove that Bonds took steroids after 2004 then fine, we can rip up the record book and give Bonds the Pete Rose*** treatment with at least a reasonably secure basis for doing so, until then he has to be inducted. Last time I checked the bat McGwire hit his tainted record breaking home run is in the hall of fame so Cooperstown can hardly be considered a steroid free zone now can it?

*** I think Pete’s near continuous coming clean is finally working. I caught a few games of the love-in that seemed to follow his reappearance at the Great American Ballpark during the Red’s series with Arizona and I think that Rose may be very close to getting his ban lifted and finally getting in the Hall. Ideally I’d like to see Bonds and Rose go in at the same induction, that would be amazing. No-one cares about the likes of Andre Dawson and Jim Rice limping into the hall 15 years or so after the face, this simply doesn’t generate enough drama. Bonds and Rose stood on the platform at Cooperstown smirking as they once and for all got their way over the baseball establishment would be beyond brilliant – ESPN could make movies about it.

But back to the Giants. I saw them destroy Milwaukee last night and they look mightily impressive. Buster Posey would be rookie of the year in any year other than this one. Andres Torres seems to have become a fantastic lead-off hitter. Pat Burrell and Jose Guillen are greatly improved and Aubrey Huff is being his usual under-rated, hugely productive self. Plus, on their day, that top of the rotation trio of Lincecum, Cain and Zito is as good as Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels (Ok, no is isn’t but Cole Hamels is very rarely on his day). The only disappointment for the Giants this year seems to be Pablo Sandoval who’s Vlad Guerrero-lite, swing at everything (figuratively rather than literally, no-one has ever accused Sandoval of being light) act seems to have caught up with him. Still, the Giants are able to peddle panda hats to all-comers so all is not lost.

Also Brian Wilson has a brilliant name is looks exactly how a closer should look.

I’m feeling disjointed in my thinking today so I’ll launch back into random, unconnected baseball musings…

Mark Grace may be the best thing about watching MLB. Since they traded Dan Haren I literally cannot think of any reason why anyone would watch the D’backs apart from Gracie. I estimate that I’ve watched more D’backs games this year than any other team (Red Sox excluded). The man is comedy gold. ESPN need to get Orel Hershiser off Sunday Night Baseball and get Gracie on there. It would be incredible. Think of the expression on John Miller’s face as he’s sandwiched between Joe Morgan’s endless wittering on about balance and Gracie proclaiming almost everything to be “Big League”. They should all be hired to do the Oscars next year. Fantastic.

Speaking of things Mark Grace thinks are ‘big league’ I really must express how completely unimpressed I am with Aroldis Chapman. Sure he throws unbelievable heat, but so does Daniel Bard and no one really wants him anywhere near a pitching mound. I’ve seen most of Chapman’s appearances so far and he really doesn’t look at that great. While commentators continuously point to the fact that he is yet to give up an earned run, he got well and truly lit up by the Rockies in one of his relief appearances, promptly allowing all 3 inherited runners to score. Essentially the guy just looks like a left-handed Kyle Farnsworth. If he was playing in the AL where plate discipline is regarded as a necessary element of success rather than a boring inconvenience (see Reynolds, Mark) then the hushed voices bigging up his dominance would be quickly silenced. Another valid Gracie point about Chapman is that he is sabotaging the closing career of Francisco Cordero. Cordero has looked very shaky recently and it is largely Dusty Baker’s fault. By insisting that Chapman act as a lefty set up man and have him throw wild 100+ mph heat at hitter all Baker is doing is making Cordero’s mid-90s stuff look like a welcome rest bite come the 9th. This is not the sort of thing one ought to be doing in the middle of a pennant race, especially when you are a team with a much poorer rotation than any of your likely postseason opponents. If the Reds are going to achieve anything come October it is going to be through their bull pen. This issue with having Chapman set up Cordero needs to be sorted out immediately. Also, this is a lousy way to repay Nick Massett for a fantastic season out of the pen.

Finally, just how bad are the Cubs? At the start of the season I optimistically predicted that the Pirates could become a .500 team. Clearly that proved to be way off the mark (this lack of success in previous predictions had led me to predict a Yankees-Phillies world series as I desperately hope to be proved wrong). However at least the Pirates have a lot of up and coming young talent and I’m certain that they will be nowhere near as bad next year. The Cubs however are a sinking ship. Ramirez and Soriano have been as poor as they are over-paid, Carlos Zambrano has lost his mind (again) and Carlos Marmol has no idea where the strike zone is. While Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro do represent hope for the future (although Castro is an error machine as SS) the Cubs have precious little else to feel positive about – let’s face it, when your best player is Marlon Byrd you are in serious trouble. Ozzie Guillen is no doubt loving it.

Championship Calibre Players and Playoff Predictions

I was reading an interesting article the other about how the Cardinals won’t make the post season because they simply do not have enough ‘Championship Calibre’ players. Now, on the face of it this is true. Yes the Cardinals have Pujols and Holliday, unquestionably the best 3-4 in baseball and the have Carpenter and Wainwright, a duo close to if not the best 1-2 in any major league rotation. But the problem seems to be that, aside from these four stars St Louis have precious little else.

This got me to thinking: how many championship calibre players does a team need to possess if it is to stand a chance of winning a World Series? Now clearly most teams cannot afford (or at leas the owners will insist they cannot afford) to stock their entire 25 man roster with championship calibre players. Therefore we have to look at players who, while not of championship calibre as very good players who could play on most, if not all major league teams – for sake of clarity we’ll call them near-championship calibre (NCC). Evidently the point being made about the 2010 Cardinals is that they do not have enough NCCs to support their four stars.

Taking a look at the world series winners from the past six seasons I feel their rosters breakdown as so:

2009 New York Yankees

Championship Calibre: Jeter, A-Rod, Teixiera, CC, Rivera
NCC: Damon, Pettitte, Swisher, Cano, Posada

2008 Philadelphia Phillies

Championship Calibre: Howard, Rollins, Utley, Lidge, Hamels
NCC: Werth, Victorino, Burrell, Blanton, Moyer*

2007 Boston Red Sox

Championship Calibre: Manny, Ortiz, Lowell (he had a huge, MVP calibre year), Beckett, Papelbon
NCC: Matsuzaka, Lester, Pedroia, Youkilis, Drew

2006 St Louis Cardinals

Championship Calibre: Pujols, Wainwright, Rolen, Edmonds, Carpenter (although he was hurt)
NCC: Eckstein, Weaver, Molina, Isringhausen

2005 Chicago White Sox

Championship Calibre: Konerko, Dye, Thomas, Buerhle, Thome
NCC: Garland, Rowand, Contreras, Pierzynski, Garcia

2004 Boston Red Sox

Championship Calibre: Manny, Schilling, Martinez, Ortiz, Damon
NCC: Varitek, Cabrera, Mueller, Lowe, Foulke

While some of these choices are, I’ll admit, arguable and the point can easily be made that the ’06 Cardinals we not an especially good regular season team, there does seem to be a pattern emerging here. Generally speaking a world series winning team will have around five clearly championship calibre players and roughly an equal amount of players near that standard.

If (and I recognise that it is a big if) we accept that having these players is likely to lead to post-season success then how to this year’s frontrunners measure up?

American League East

New York Yankees

CC: CC, Teixiera, A-Rod, Cano, Rivera
NCC: Jeter, Swisher, Granderson, Burnett, Posada

Tampa Bay Rays

CC: Longoria, Price, Crawford
NCC: Garza, Upton, Pena, Soriano

American League Central

Minnesota Twins

CC: Mauer, Liriano, Thome, Young, Morneau (if healthy)
NCC: Pavano, Capps, Fuentes, Cuddyer

Chicago White Sox

CC: Manny, Quentin, Konerko
NCC: Rios, Danks, Jenks, Ramirez

American League West

Texas Rangers

CC: Hamilton, Kinsler, Lee, Vlad, Young
NCC: Feliz, Andrus, Cruz

Oakland Athletics

CC: Cahill
NCC: Bailey, Cust, Crisp.

This seems to back up actually results, The Yankees will eventually outlast the Rays because their talent base is bigger, the Rays do not have enough star players to last against a team with a perfect 5-5 ratio like New York. The Twins are almost as good as the Yankees, these two teams will meet in the ALCS and the Twins will give the Yankees a good run of it, ultimately they will lose because of a lack of pitching. The West is a weak division, the Rangers are reliant on too few players and will not stand up to a 5-5 team over the course of a play-off series.

Now the National League, and the Cardinals:

National League East

Philadelphia Phillies

CC: Halladays, Oswalt, Utley, Howard, Werth
NCC: Rollins, Hamels, Victorino, Ibanez, Lidge

Atlanta Braves

CC: McCann, Heyward, Hudson, Wagner
NCC: D-Lee, Prado, Hanson, Glaus

National League Central

Cincinnati Reds

CC: Rolen, Votto, Phillips, Bruce
NCC: Stubbs, Cabrera, Volquez, Chapman

St Louis Cardinals

CC: Pujols, Holliday, Carpenter, Wainwright
NCC: Garcia, Rasmus

National League West

San Diego Padres

CC: Bell, Gonzalez
NCC: Latos, Garland, Tejeda

San Francisco Giants

CC: Lincecum, Cain, Wilson
NCC: Huff, Sandoval, Burrell, Torres

Colorado Rockies

CC: Cargo, Tulo, Jimenez, Street
NCC: Helton, Giambi, Young Jr

This seems to bare out the actually situation too. The Phillies should win the East, they have the best ratio of any of the NL contenders, the Braves are a close second and therefore should win the Wild Card. Cincinnati’s 4-4 split (I considered putting Gomes down as a NCC but thought Drew Stubbs was enough of a stretch) will get them into the postseason but I don’t think they are a match for Philly or Atlanta over 7 games. The West is a dogfight between three teams, none of which have the depth of quality to beat the two teams from the East. St Louis have the worst supporting cast of any of the contenters.

Following this model for assessing team’s chances, which I do acknowledge is incredibly subjective as its my assessment of players which determines who is a CC, NCC or also-ran. However I’m prepared to use it to make my play-off predictions. Here they are:

AL

New York over Texas (3-1)
Minnesota over Tampa (3-2)

New York over Minnesota (4-2)

NL

Philly over Colorado (3-2)
Atlanta over Cincinnati (3-1)

Philly over Atlanta (4-1)

World Series:

Philly over New York (4-1) – This is based on pitching, A.J. Burnett will have to pitch at least once in the series.

Coincidently, at the start of the season there was, as far as I’m concerned only one team with six championship calibre players: The New York Mets (CC: Wright, Bay, Beltran, Santana, K-Rod, Reyes)

Funny how things work out.

Too Hot to Touch?

After watching Manny Ramirez perched in the White Sox dugout during their game with the Indians on Tuesday night as question cropped into my head: at what point does the baggage a player bring with them out way the value of their playing ability?

It seems that this question varies, or at least should vary, on where that team is in the standings and where it hopes to be come the year’s end. For example, a poor team, facing diminished gate receipts as they fall out of contention should probably covet the services of a controversial star more than a team in the middle of a play-off race who can ill-afford to risk their team chemistry for the sake of some extra pop in the line-up. Of course this has not proven to be the case. If it were true then why would the out of contention Dodgers place Manny on waivers and why would the contending White Sox (who are crammed full of good power hitters) take the risk?

Of course it is Manny, the baseball definition of the exception that proves the rule.

It must be said that Manny is not all that controversial in the grand scheme of things. Yes, he was suspended for 50 games last year, yes he has spent the majority of his Dodgers career holding out for obscene amounts of money and yes he did leave the Red Sox in less than dignified circumstances. But he’s clearly not yet reached the level of controversy necessary for team to avoid him like the plague. I’m sure that still being capable of 30HR 120RBI .300+ seasons doesn’t harm his chances either.

When we talk about controversial players there will always be one name that looms large over all others: Barry Lamar Bonds.

Bonds (allegedly) was so keen to sign on with a team in 2008 that his agent offered Barry’s services to all 30 Major League teams for the league minimum, pro-rated. Even that minimum salary was to be “given to kids” and yet no team offered Bonds a contract. Now, while its been rumoured that this was more a PR stunt designed to salvage Barry’s less than stellar public perception than a genuine offer it does provide an interesting discussion point. Assuming that the offer was genuine, why was no team prepared to give Barry a spot in the line-up for half a season?

Obviously the negatives with Barry are well-documented; allegations of steroid use, long held reputation as a club-house cancer etc. But the fact remains that, even at his most hated and reviled, Barry Bonds drew people to the ball-park. Think of the marketing possibilities had Barry signed on with the Royals or the Blue Jays: “Barry Bonds, after defiling the consecrated ground of the National League dares to infiltrate the AL, quickly hurry down to Kaufman stadium to boo this villain”. The Royals would make an absolute killing in merchandise and ticket sales and could easily use this money to finance getting in some legitimate free agent talent come seasons end.

And of course, let’s not forget that Barry Bonds come the end of the 2007 season was far from done as a big league hitter. He didn’t limp towards his final game in the way Giambi, McGwire and countless other ageing sluggers have. He still had the intimidation factor, still had plenty of pop left in his bat and was still putting up video-game level OBP. He could have made any number of teams better, not just AL teams. Manny Ramirez was still ‘playing’ LF for the Red Sox at the time and I’m that even a 44 year old Barry Bonds can’t have been that bad in the field. Hell, people were still paying Adam Dunn money to play the outfielder in 2008.

Yet with Bonds it is clear that his reputation, tarnished legacy and the inevitable headaches having him and what he has come to represent on the ball club were considered more important to Major League GMs than what he might be able to contribute financially and offensively. In Bond’s case this is probably fair enough, although I would argue that it is the job of every GM in baseball to wheel and deal in order to field the best, most competitive team possible. If Bonds is allowed to play by Bud Selig and the commissioner’s office and is willing to play for the minimum then I don’t see how any GM has any moral duty to refuse to sign him. Frankly if Bonds is a disgrace to baseball and a cheat then he should have been suspended and removed from the game publically by Selig. That he wasn’t and isn’t means that he is fair game (although there is every chance that teams did want to sign Bonds and Selig told them not to, he could have been black-listed like Jose Canseco keeps claiming to have been).

All in all, while there are holes in the idea that Bonds’ reputation is too big an albatross for the sensible franchise to bare, I can sympathise with teams shying away from signing players like Bonds on this basis as long as there is consistency. I’ve got no problem with it if there is some sort of united front presented by baseball which states that players with a certain degree of infamy are not to be hired.

It is however wholly inconsistent to have the Giants herd big Barry out of the back door of AT&T park with embarrassed looks on their faces and then have the Cardinals offer Mark McGwire the hitting coach job. Since when was McGwire any less culpable that Bonds is for the so-called ‘steroid era’? Sure, McGwire admitted (in a manner of speaking) to using PEDs and isn’t facing perjury charges like Bonds and Clemens but this doesn’t make him any less guilty when it comes to allegations of cheating the game/defiling history etc. Plus, at the time of his appointment Big Mac hadn’t owned up to anything. There are many problems with having McGwire as a hitting coach (e.g. what can a all-or-nothing slugger like McGwire teach Holliday and Pujols about hitting?) but the most startling is that MLB is allowing this to happen in the first place. Are we going to see Clemens sign on as a pitching coach somewhere? I doubt it. I know there is an argument to be made that Bonds and Clemens are untouchable as long as there are current legal proceedings active against them but that really doesn’t pass the smell test. Didn’t Miguel Tejeda start this season with the threat of jail time and deportation hanging over him?

Clearly there is some sort of ranking system going on here, Bonds, Clemens, Canseco, Palmeiro and a few others (John Rocker hopefully) are to be ostracised and banished from the game whilst some, equally tarnished players are to be given second chances (Sosa, Ramirez, A-Rod, Giambi, McGwire). If we are to truly put the steroid era behind us and move on there needs to be some sort of clarity about this issue. Either they are all guilty and all excluded or they are all to be given the opportunity to return and make amends like McGwire has.

The Power of Hype

Apologies for the long wait in between posts, I’ve been moving house.

Returning to the same bugbear I had come the announcements of the 2009 Gold Glove winners I thought I’d take the time to rant about the impact of hype and expectation on another, dare I say, more prestigious award bestowed by Major League Baseball; namely the Rookie of the Year awards.

Although there are still some 30 or so games remaining in the season the National League in particular seems to have pretty much decided its winners in this category. In doing so more deserving candidates are likely to be left out in the cold come November.

In terms of the Rookie of the Year award it should be pretty clear that Jason Heyward is going to win this award. In truth Heyward probably won the award by the end of the very first game of the season. Heyward’s fantastic spring training, his hometown hero status as an athlete who inspired African-Americans in Georgia to pursue baseball and simple being just 20 years old already had him marked for big league awards. Hitting that colossal home run in his first major league at bat was just the icing on the cake. After the ‘Chris Who?’ reactions to last years winner Chris Coghlan baseball finally had a rookie with brand recognition. Really with this years rookie crop the MLB publicity and marketing machine couldn’t lose. If Heyward failed to live up to the hype (he has, just) then there was always Stephen Strasburg, the ‘greatest pitching prospect there ever was’ or maybe Mike Leake who missed the minors entirely. Given the buzz surrounding him in Spring Training there was always a chance that Aroldis Chapman, he of the 100mph fastball and the romantic story of defection from Cuba, would take home the trophy.

The only trouble is none of these great young hopes for baseball have panned out quite as planned. Yes, Heyward is having a very good year, at the time of writing he is on a tear and has a .275 BA and 70 RBIs and looks to be the centre piece of the Braves’ offence (along with Brian McCann) for the considerable future but he is not the clear cut best hitter in the 2010 rookie class. Strasburg was incredible but now the issue facing Strasburg is not whether or not he should win Heyward’s Rookie of the Year award given his June call-up but more an issue of whether is will be able to come back from injury and have a major league future at all. The same could be said about Leake. Chapman is definitely the biggest let-down of the four having yet to appear in a big league game.

Heyward however has a lot of less heralded competition, many of whom compare favourably with him as a player thus far this season. Tyler Colvin leads all Major League rookies with 19 HRs, Mike Stanton is proving to be everything they said he was down in Florida and Starlin Castro is having success in Chicago at the same tender age as Heyward. Not to mention Ike Davis in New York. None of these men however are having quite as good a year as Gaby Sanchez, the true NL rookie of the year.

At the time of writing Sanchez was besting Heyward in all of the triple crown statistics (* Heyward has now caught him in RBIs) and is hitting .282/.350.

I know there is of course an argument to be made that Heyward deserves the award because of the intense pressure he has been under in Atlanta to live up to all of the praise and expectation placed on him. Also he is playing a more demanding position than Sanchez. These are valid arguments and I do not for one second believe that, should Heyward win the award it will be a gross miscarriage of justice, however Sanchez deserves more credit than he is currently getting.

Heyward, because of the expectations heaped upon him and because of his value to the Braves as a marketing tool has been given all the opportunities possible in order to help him succeed, in short, he has developed into a star player partly because the Braves (particularly after Chipper’s injury) have placed him centre stage, have placed him in the RBI situations, have made him a star player. Sanchez has had none of that in Florida, he has succeeded despite the organisation’s pushing of the likes of Stanton and Coghlan ahead of him. Plus, Heyward has had the benefit of being coached by the likes of Bobby Cox, Terry Pendleton and (presumably) Chipper Jones, Troy Glaus and Brian McCann in order to develop his game. Who does Sanchez have to provide the same expertise? Hanley Ramirez dispensing advise? I very much doubt it.

All in all it seems pretty much a foregone conclusion that Heyward will win the Rookie of the Year and that’s fine, he deserves it. Let’s just not forget that there are a player equally as good and equally as deserving that got left in the shadow of Heyward-mania this year.

Give Frenchy a chance!

Yesterday the Mets traded Jeff Francoeur to the Rangers for Joaquin Arias, and it was a stupid thing to do.

It was stupid on several levels, not least on the level that the Mets absolutely do not need another middle infielder (least of all one as substandard as Arias) and surely the Rangers don’t need another outfielder (they already have Hamilton, Cruz, Murphy etc plus I can see no reason why Vlad couldn’t be trotted out at LF every once in a while).

More so, I cannot fathom why the Mets would be so eager to get rid of Francoeur so cheaply and so recklessly.

I like Frenchy but I’m not going to argue that the .237/.293/.369 is anything less than what it is, absolutely terrible. Indeed, Jeff’s offensive ability, especially when assessed in sabremetric terms has been a cause for concern for some time. However I refuse to believe that Jeff is done as a full-time big leaguer.

Let’s look at the positives. Jeff Francoeur is 26 years old. A huge proportion of great players haven’t so much as had a cup of coffee in the major by the time they reach 26 (Ryan Howard for example). Whilst a brief glance through Jeff’s stats does reveal a worrying trend of very poor batting average to on-base-percentage (the best differential he’s managed over a full season was .293/.338 in 2007) his stats for this season so far reveal a much healthier 60 point difference between the two percentages. Admittedly Frenchy’s only hitting .237 but slumps in batting average can be attributable to many things whereas low OBP is usually a constant characteristic. There has been speculation that Jeff has lost bat speed and his low average is caused by this. Frankly I don’t buy this theory. Players do not lose their bat speed at 26. Have we learned nothing from David Ortiz over the past few years, we were all quick to assume that Big Papi’s bat speed had vanished when rumours of its demise were greatly overstated. Francoeur hit above .300 last year after being traded to the Mets, there’s no reason to think he can’t do that again, and if his BA/OBP differential remains at 2010 levels then he’ll have an OBP of .360, well above league average.

I don’t necessarily think that Francoeur is ever going to be an above average hitter but I do think that many of the predictions being made about his offensive future this season are alarmist. He is simply having a bad year, playing in notoriously bad hitter’s park and is under the pressure of the New York media. There is no reason whatsoever that, at 26 Francoeur cannot enjoy a career resurgence in the American League and become the 25 HR 100 RBI man of his early seasons with the Braves.

This explains why the Rangers wanted Francoeur. Whilst one can never be certain how a career NL player will perform in the AL (see Willis, Dontrelle) there is every chance that Francoeur’s free-swinging ways will make him a hero in Texas and enable him to become what he was meant to be in Atlanta; a young (more-or-less) 5-tool player that you can build a franchise around. The prospect of Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz and a resurgent Jeff Francoeur manning the Texas outfield is pretty daunting isn’t it?

Yet I’m sure that Omar Minaya didn't have the best interests of Jeff Francoeur at heart when he made this trade happen. It seems that the Mets have dumped Jeff simply for whatever they could get in return. This is the part I don’t get. The Mets have (realistically) no chance of making the post-season and have huge injury issues in their outfield (Bay, a returning Beltran who is hitting below the Mendoza line). Why not keep Francoeur until the end of the year, why sell him so cheaply to a contending team?

By all accounts Francoeur has really developed into a leader on this rag-tag Mets team. This perhaps is an indication of where Jeff’s true value lies, if his hitting doesn’t improve then perhaps he can still make a valuable contribution as a leader in the Jason Varitek mould.

And let’s not forget his arm, still by far the best cannon in the game.

Don’t count Frenchy out, he still might surprise you.

All Star Game Selections

Apologies for having not posted in a while. I’ve been far too busy job-hunting and getting excited about the World Cup. I’ve been working on a post about the value of W-L statistics and hope to have that up by the end of the week.

Until then, as a member of the Baseball Bloggers Association I will be posting my All-Star ballot for the 2010 season. I’m following the format used by MLB.com for this, plus I’ll include a pitching staff of 5 starters, a reliever and a closer from each league.

American League:

Catcher:

Victor Martinez (Boston Red Sox)

Obviously Joe Mauer is going to be voted into the All-Star game and, in all likelihood is going to star for the AL but V-Mart really deserves such consideration. Currently Victor is second to Jason Kendal in at bats for an American League catcher and is putting up better offensive numbers than Mauer. Mauer is of course hitting for a higher average but one could well argue that given that the entire twins offence is set up around him and Morneau he is underperforming in terms of production. V-Mart has had a fantastic June thus far and, as far as I can recall, hasn’t done anything too horrendous defensively for a while.

1st Base:

Justin Morneau (Minnesota Twins)

While Miguel Cabrera seems to be storming his way towards triple crown consideration I’m giving the nod to Morneau who is hitting .344/.455/.624 whilst playing for a team which has more offensive threats to share the RBI totals with than the one-dimensional Tigers. Honourable mention has to go to Billy Butler (who Kansas City need to sell the cow to keep hold of for as long as possible if they ever hope to contend again) and Kevin Youkilis. Ideally Youk would receive my vote here but, for the sake of impartiality and integrity I’m going to go with Morneau who is currently my hot pick for AL MVP too.

2nd Base:

Robinson Cano (New York Yankees)

It’s very difficult to see how anyone other than Cano is going to get any serious consideration for starting AL second baseman this year. Of course Dustin Pedroia will get into the game but that is entirely due to the fanaticism of the Red Sox ‘Nation’ rather than anything he has done on the field thus far in 2010. Cano however has finally fulfilled the enormous potential the Yankees have proclaimed he has (yes, I know he had 200+ hits last year but was still lost in the Teixiera, Jeter, A-Rod shuffle and never stood out as integral to the team) and is a strong bet for MVP (although I have my doubts about whether anyone playing for a Yankees team that stacked can ever meet the true definition of a valuable player).

3rd Base:

Adrian Beltre (Boston RedSox)

If you had told me that I would be voting Adrian Beltre onto the AL all-star team as a member of the Boston Red Sox this time last year I would have had you committed. However, despite my scepticism about whether Beltre could ever live up to his 2004 season he has been quietly magnificent for the Sox this year, powering an offense that (especially early on) was crying out for someone to take a lead. Beltre is hitting .333 and has 9HR and 44RBI. A year ago I would have said that I didn’t expect much more than that from him for the whole year. A third of the way through the season 2004’s 40+HR and 120 RBIs doesn’t seem so ridiculous anymore. That said, I could do without some of his defensive ‘plays’ however.

Short Stop:

Elvis Andrus (Texas Rangers)

Derek Jeter will be starting at SS for the American Leagues, that’s just a fact of life. However, this year (as with last year) one can make a very strong case for Jeter as the best SS in the AL. The same goes for Alex Gonzalez. Who would have thought he’d have hit 13 bombs thus far into the year (how many would he have hit at Fenway is a more depressing proposition). However, despite the strong cases for Jeter (who will get in anyway) and Gonzalez (who will probably taper off...he’d better) I’m going to have to give the vote to Elvis. Andrus leads AL short stops in batting average and stolen bases and is very much the catalyst that inspires the Rangers’ offense. Plus he’s a sophomore and deserves the chance to get his foot in the door as an all-star.

Outfielders:

Shin Soo Choo (Cleveland Indians)

Admittedly this selection is based more on Choo’s excellence last year than his play thus far in 2010, although he’s been by far the most exciting hitter to suit up for the tribe this year. Now that Grady Sizemore is on his annual trip to the DL (and if you ask me if all but done as a top flight CF – see Baldelli, Rocco) Choo has taken over the dubious honour of constituting the entire Cleveland offence and probably deserve an all-star nod as compensation.

Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle Mariners)

It’s Ichiro, you can’t have an all-star game without Ichiro now can you? Ichiro should get into the all-star game on reputation alone but since he’s hitting for his usually ridiculous average he (once again) makes it in on met. Also, he hit an absolutely beautiful lead-off homer against St Louis the other day.

Austin Jackson (Detroit Tigers)

At the time of writing Jackson was still hitting over .300 and was leading AL rookies in most offensive categories. While I’m not particularly thrilled by the young CFs propensity to strike out at a Mark Reynolds clip one cannot fail to be impressed with his efforts thus far into his first big league season. As a Red Sox fan I can’t help but love watching Jackson succeed in Detroit whilst Curtis Granderson stinks up (then gets injured) in New York. Typical short-sighted Yankees trading at work. On a ‘well done Detroit for cultivating young stars’ notes if I wasn’t selecting Austin Jackson with this pick it would be Brandon Boesch getting the nod.

Designated Hitter:

Vlad Guerrero (Texas)

Apologies, completely forgot about the DH in my original voting. In a last ditch attempt to save the BBA All-Star voting system from being lopsided I'm voting for Vlad in the DH role. The reasons should be self-explanatory, he's having a massive year and could be an MVP (the comback award is already in the bag).

Starting Pitchers:

Jon Lester (Boston Red Sox)

I’ve been torn between Jon Lester or Clay Buchholz for my obligatory Red Sox pitching selection. I’m going to have to go with Jon as my pick as he’s finally taken over the ace mantle from the epically disappointing Josh Beckett. Honourable mention goes to Dice-K.

David Price (Tampa Bay Rays)

See Lester, Jon. Only better.

Mitch Talbot (Cleveland Indians)

There is rarely much to applaud in Cleveland once the Cavs are eliminated from the playoffs, and particularly since Hafner and Sizemore proved themselves fundamentally incapable of staying on a baseball field. Mitch Talbot, a Tampa Bay cast-off who was never given a proper chance by the Rays, is proving a genuine top of the rotation starter for the Indians and deserves an all-star nod. I’m not convinced he’ll still be an all-star come seasons end but still...

Phil Hughes (New York Yankees)

Even in my darkest Yankee-hating days I’ve always had a soft spot for Phil Hughes, and not just when seeing either him or Ian Kennedy at Fenway Park meant a guaranteed victory for the Sox. It’s nice to see him finally live up to all that potential.

Francisco Liriano (Minnesota Twins)

Liriano is another player I’ve always been impressed by and frustrated by in equal measure. A legitimate Cy Young calibre pitcher derailed by injury, Liriano looks to have finally shaken off the arm problems that have cost his years. If he can keep up this form he still has a chance to be as good as (if not better) CC Sabathia.

Relief Pitcher:

Sergio Santos (Chicago White Sox)

I’m always a big fan of these failed position players makes it as a pitcher (or vice versa) stories. I’d be happy enough letting Santos into the game just for that reason, but judging by the stats he’s been the most effective reliever in the American League to boot.

Closer:

Jose Valverde (Detroit Tigers)

There doesn’t seem to be a clear-cut number one closer in the AL for me to pick this season. I was sorely tempted by Rafael Soriano and Neftali Feliz, but in the end I’m going to have to go for Jose pretty much solely on the basis on looking the part and having the intimidation factor that I like to see in my closers.

National League

Catcher:

Ivan Rodriguez (Washington Nationals)

I didn’t really want to have to vote for Pudge, largely due to the fact that I absolutely cannot stand the guy. One doesn’t want to say controversial things and cast aspersions on players’ integrity online (Raul Ibanez will come and get you if you do) but I’m increasingly coming to the opinion that; if Jose Canseco says someone did ‘roids, they probably did. Still Pudge is having a resurgent season after spending the best part of 3 years as a bit-part player. He is hitting like the Pudge of old and deserves recognition for the work he is undoubtedly doing acclimatising Stephen Strasburg to the majors.

1st base:

Troy Glaus (Atlanta Braves)

Glaus is another play who I thought was all but done as a legitimate everyday major league player. However, the switch over to 1st and a few months of health seem to have turned the clock back about 5 years on Glaus and (at time of writing) is pretty much there or there-abouts at the top of all NL statistical categories.

2nd base:

Kelly Johnson (Arizona Diamondbacks)

This was always going be between Kelly Johnson (who admittedly has calmed down from his dizzying peak when he had the South West [well, Mark Grace at least] convinced that he was a re-incarnation of Babe Ruth) and his replacement (or ouster) in Atlanta; Martin Prado. I’m going to give the nod to Johnson just because he was the one who had to re-start his career elsewhere and is doing so admirably.

3rd base:

Scott Rolen (Cincinnati Reds)

Who doesn’t like Scott Rolen? The hard-working, gritty, tough, 3rd baseman with a little bit of pop in his bat? Precisely. Role is the sort of guy everyone wants to have in the all-star games because he play it the way its meant to be played. Plus, this season, after years of injuries, he’s actually playing like a bona fide all-star too. Special mention to Jorge Cantu too.

Short Stop:

Juan Uribe (San Francisco Giants)

How did this happen? Juan Uribe, ex-White Sox cast off second baseman who I expected to spend much of this year sitting on the Giants’ bench, occasionally spot starting has 10HR and 41 RBIs in mid June! Normally this NL SS pick would have gone to Hanley Ramirez just because of my general love of the guy, not to mention that he’d be a perennial MVP if he played for a proper baseball team. However Hanley’s reputation has taken a bit of a bruising thus far in 2010 and while there is still a strong all-star case to be made for Ramirez (who is statistically the best SS in the NL) I think that based on performance, exceeded expectations and crucially, given the criticism Hanley has received, hard work and determination, Juan Uribe has to be the NL short stop.

Outfielders:

Jason Heyward (Atlanta Braves)

The anointed one can’t miss the all-star game now can he? Heyward is slumping lately but one could hardly blame his given that he is being asked to carry the future of Atlanta baseball on his 20 year old shoulders. Still his numbers are all star calibre even with the slump and it does the game of baseball good to celebrate exciting young stars like Heyward and Jackson at the midsummer classic. I imagine that the BBWA will be straining themselves trying to find anyway possible to vote Heyward the NL APA (Albert Pujols Award) come September, he might not make it too hard for them.

Colby Rasmus (St Louis Cardinals)

Colby Rasmus is going to win an MVP award in the next 5 years. I’ve watched a lot of Cardinals games thus far this year and Rasmus really stands out as the ‘straw that stirs the drink’ on that team. Obviously the Cards are Albert’s team first and foremost but even Pujols needs a number 2 and given that Matt Holliday really doesn’t seem to be as advertised outside of Coors Fields, 2010 could well be Colby’s chance to shine.

Andrew McCutchen (Pittsburgh Pirates)

I ummed and ahhed about this one and thought long and hard about whether I wanted to use the last remaining outfield slot to vote in Chris Young (who is having a lovely season and finally living up to his potential in Arizona), or for Josh Willingham (a perennial second level talent who is putting up big numbers for the Nats). However I think that the young Pittsburgh CF has the edge on the competition and deserves a spot on the all-star roster for being so cruelly overlooked for last years rookie of the year competition.

Starting Pitching:

Ubaldo Jimenez (Colorado Rockies)

I don’t see much point in going into too much detail here, Ubaldo is 13-1 with a microscopic ERA. He will win the Cy Young award, no matter how many perfectos Roy Halladay throws.

Roy Halladay (Philadelphia Phillies)

Like with the likely runner up in the NL Cy Young race. Doc has been every bit as good as advertised since making the leap from the AL to the NL. The only surprise with Roy’s 2010 thus far has been the 8-6 Win Loss record, but, given that he has a sub 3.00 ERA, this less than stellar record is entirely the fault of the misfiring Phillies offence (plus that night that Boston hammered the hell out of Doc).

Jon Garland (San Diego Padres)

I’ve always been a big fan of Jon Garland and pitchers like him. Never flashy, never a dominant ace, Garland just goes out there every 5th day and makes his team better and gives them a chance to win. The success of the Padres (and particularly the success of the woeful on paper Padres rotation) is largely due to Garland’s stable, veteran presence. He could be the most ‘valuable’ pitcher on this list.

Josh Johnson (Florida Marlins)

Halladay’s arch nemesis has been every bit as good as his rival thus far this season, including two memorable face-offs one of which was Halladay’s perfect game. The Marlins really did the right things in securing Johnson’s services going forward. Given Hanley Ramirez’ problems Johnson is looking more and more like the face of the franchise.

Mike Pelfrey (New York Mets)

How did this happen? A Mets pitcher in the all-star game and it’s not Johan? Still, while it’s not something that many would have predicted back in February, Pelfrey has probably been the most effective starter in the NL East thus far and thoroughly deserves his all-star place.

Relief Pitcher

Jason Motte (St Louis Cardinals)

Motte is pretty much the only guy I’m voting for here that has no chance of making it to Anaheim in July. But he should. The hard-throwing righty has been beyond solid for the Cards this year, appearing in a ton of games and maintaining a mid 2 ERA throughout. I can’t help but think that the Cardinals were a bit too hasty giving up on this guy as a closer. Certainly, if they aren’t able to keep Motte long term he could definitely become a big name closer elsewhere.

Closer

Billy Wagner (Atlanta Braves)

Admittedly this is very much a ‘so-long and goodbye’ pick, letting a hall of the very good closer go out with a nice thank you. Wagner deserves it too, 90% of the baseball world thought he was done after losing much of 2009 to injury (and having the Mets inexplicably sign two all-star closers didn’t help) but Billy deserves major credit for contributing to the Red Sox’ playoff run in 2009 and re-establishing himself as a premier closer with the resurgent Braves in 2010.

All's Wells That Ends Wells?

I really don’t know where I stand on Vernon Wells. On the one hand Wells has always stood out to me as the most glaring example of ridiculous contracts in baseball, as an exemplar of a team grossly over-estimating a player’s monetary value and setting back their own plans for success as a result. However, thus far in 2010 Wells is making me doing some re-thinking as, and no-one is as surprised about this than me, Vernon is actually playing like a player who makes close to $20,000,000 a year.

If Wells is able to sustain is his blistering early season form: 9 HR, 25 RBI, .328/.395/.641 with a 1.036 OPS then his name may very well be floating around in discussions for American League MVP come October. I also seems a pretty safe bet that he will make the AL All-Star team (although, given that he plays for Toronto I wouldn’t actually make that bet).

My concern with all this lies in the expectations we have of an MVP, of an All-Star. Are these players simply the best player that year in their league (if so just rename the NL MVP award the Albert Pujols award and be done with it) or do we actually take the phrase ‘most valuable player’ literally? I’m tempted to believe that in the AL at least we do. There is no other way of explaining Pedroia’s 2008 victory otherwise.

Assuming (and this is the sort of huge assumption that is liable to get oneself committed) that Well’s continue his form and carries these numbers into October, and that, by doing so he propels the Blue Jays into Wild-Card contention he could well be touted as a MVP, and under normal circumstances, rightly so.

Vernon Wells can have as good a 2010 season as he wants, he will still not be valuable to the Blue Jays. He owes them several years of early 2000’s Barry Bonds seasons offensively combined with Andruw Jones in his prime defence to even come close to being valuable to the franchise that has (idiotically, and Wells is not reasonable for that idiocy) made Vernon Wells a very rich man for, barring a Lenny Dykstra style financial collapse, the rest of his life.

Many people have called players like Wells and Barry Zito thieves, accusing them of some sort of wrongdoing in getting misguided franchises to pay way over the odds for their services. This is not the case, Wells’ lacklustre performance since 2006 is likely not the product of laziness or coasting (an accusation that case often be levelled at Manny Ramirez) and he is under no moral obligation to (as some commentators have suggest Zito should) return any of the millions he has undeservedly made during the three year period where he was putting up numbers like these:

2007: 16 HR 80 RBI - .245/.304/.402 .706 OPS
2008: 20 HR 78 RBI - .300/.343/.496 .840 OPS
2009: 15 HR 66 RBI - .260/.311/.400 .711 OPS

While 2008 wasn’t a total bust for Wells there is no doubting that a player putting up these numbers is of little ‘value’ to a team and that that value is significantly diminished when that player is making $18,000,000 a season. The argument I made that David Ortiz was still valuable last season when, despite a far lower batting average he produced similar HR and RBI totals to A-Rod made sense as Ortiz made nearly $15,000,000 less a year than Rodriguez. That argument cannot be made with Wells.

Wells has been so burdensome to the Blue Jays that they spent a great deal of last season offering Roy Halladay for a bag of magic beans just as long as someone was prepared to take Well’s ridiculous contract off their hands. No-one wanted him, which was a surprise really as, given subsequent form I would have thought Theo would have jumped at the prospect of overpaying for an oft-injured, offensively ineffective outfielder.

That a team is prepared to let their greatest ever play leave for less than they might normally demand just in order to get rid of the contract of their greatest ever financial albatross does not speak wonders for that player.

In short; Vernon, the last three years aren’t necessarily your fault but you will have to do a hell of a lot better than 40 HR 100 RBI and a .300/.400/.500 to ever be thought of as valuable again.